Paramilitary group claims to have formed in Costa Rica; Chinchilla says violence not the answer in Nicaragua conflict

Let me add three conjectures here, which you can take for what they’re worth.

One is that Ortega chose to invade (which while a strong word and possibly not accurate owing to legitimately contested boundaries, he probably did) because he didn’t believe that negotiating with CR for the joint development of the Rio San Juan area would succeed within the next 50 years. CR doesn’t need it, Nica does, and the history of antagonisms between the country caused Ortega to calculate that CR wouldn’t negotiate in good faith without provocation. Therefore, he intentionally provoked CR with the aim of forcing it to the negotiating table.

Now you, I, most Ticos, and eventually probably the World Court can say that Ortega violated CR’s sovereignty by disrespecting CR’s border, and we would all have the satisfaction of being right. However, being right wouldn’t get the job done that needs to be done. Getting that job done requires a guy like Ortega willing to break the rules and force the issue. This doesn’t make Ortega right, in fact he remains in the wrong, but it does introduce a different criterion of evaluation: Is it not sometimes better to break the rules for the sake of a larger good than to abide by the rules and fail to achieve the larger good?

I can’t tell you or anyone else how to resolve this matter, and my own opinion is conflicted, but I might add that the US did the same thing when it took out Osama bin Laden. It violated international law, but got the job done.

My second conjecture is that some of the conflict between Nica and CR is rooted in class differences. Ortega is at base a lower-middle class prole, given to indelicacies and vulgarities that make higher class people like Arias and middle-class ladies like Chinchilla cringe. These class differences in the leadership are mirrored in similar class differences in the population. Most Ticos are more affluent, better education, and more cultured than most of the Nicas they encounter. It is accordingly difficult for Ticos to set aside their prejudices and view Nicas as worthy interlocutors, which makes it more difficult for Ticos to negotiate (and more necessary for Nicas to force negotiations).

My third conjecture is that there is a set of Ticos that doesn’t buy their culture’s pacifism. I first encountered this set on a local gun discussion board, where I was surprised to see posts every bit along the lines of “Dirty Hairy” as one might find on similar discussion boards in the US. I also have two Tico friends who are anything but pacifistic in their opinions about the conflict with Nicaragua. They want to fight, or at least want to see someone fight on CR’s behalf. Whether any of this will ever be expressed in action, I can’t predict, but there is sentiment in CR that favors armed defense as well as it would appear aggressive action against Nicas inside CR.

In any event, all this concerns me deeply, as I’m sure it does you and others. I can’t completely side with Ortega, since in the narrow view he is in the wrong. I also want to support the country where I live and that has been good enough to take me in. However, I think that the larger goal Ortega is after is for the best for everyone concerned, so I really want CR rise to the occasion and negotiate the win-win that I believe is to be had rather than sink into deeper anti-Nica animosity, protracted protesting and legal fights, and possibly armed conflict. My main annoyance is therefore with Chinchilla and her foreign ministers, who in my opinion have mishandled this conflict from the beginning and continue to mishandle it.

Ortega seems to be adopting an attitude similar to Zionist in Israel, who believe that Palestinians are living on Israeli lands; and like Rwanda’s military government, which feels that it has the right to violate other nation’s territorial integrity, on behalf of Rwandans living abroad. He sees that the map of Eastern Europe has been redrawn and now his own feet are starting to itch.

Glad you posted this example, because it’s exactly the example that I have often used to mull this matter.

If you are a neighbor messing with my property, isn’t the first thing I do is talk to you about it? You know, “Hey, this is my property! WTF ya doing?”

My first step is NOT to travel the neighborhood knocking on doors badmouthing you and filing complaints against you in any court that might possibly have jurisdiction. My first step is to talk to you, for crying out loud, and this is the step CR has not taken.

Plus, if we talk–Guess what?–you might actually have something to say that interests me. You might e.g., “Look, there’s gold buried on the border between our properties, and if we dig it up we’ll both be rich.” Gosh, I might like that idea.

Convenient. You twice call Nicaragua a “thug,” say its “heavily armed” (implying I guess that CR isn’t), and refer to the readers of the Miami Herald and the other forums in which Chinchilla has whined as “the authorities.” Gee, when you introduce this kind of hyperbolic spin, it makes it sound like CR is a virgin schoolgirl encountering Dracula. I am real, and I take telenovelas for the melodramatic fictions they are.

You may be a military strategist; I am not. However, I think I know that the number of troops is largely irrelevant. More relevant is the training and arms. China for example has way more troops than the US, but spends far less and equips the troops more poorly. Thus, while I suppose anything is theoretically possible, I can’t imagine that Nicaragua’s 15,000 troops would automatically vanquish CR’s 12,000 cops in border warfare. The relevant combat question would seem to be how well-trained and equipped the different fighting forces are. We know that CR still trains some of its so-called police at the School of the Americas, while Nicaragua does not, but I don’t know how comparatively well armed the two fighting forces are. My guess would be that they are armed differently, but that CR has the superior arms. Do you know?

Of course, the fair question is whether CR’s police is a military under a more innocuous name (as Nicaragua contends) or isn’t. I don’t know the answer to this question either. It would seem to turn on training and arms.

I do know, or think I know, that in Nicaragua, where the official unemployment rate hovers in the 40-something percent, the military is often considered a good, secure career, so lots of kids are attracted to it. At least this was what a young soldier in León told me. I doubt though that this means they are well-equipped. When labor is cheap, it’s less expensive to pay the soldiers than it is to equip them well.

And I’m glad you added “for that part of the world.” Divided by the total population, the US has three times more soldiers per capita than does Nicaragua, yet it has super sophisticated armaments. Is a much less technologically sophisticated country with a third the troops “heavily armed”?

But war talk is crazy when all Chinchilla needs to do is dial the telephone and set up a meeting. I guess if she wants to bring a pistol with her that will be her choice, but something tells me that not one of Nicaragua’s 15,000 troops will fire a shot–and if one tried his old rusty gun would probably jam.

I think Ortega may be getting drunk on the idea that Nicaragua may be receiving aid from the Chinese for a new canal. And maybe he is starting to feel like an international player. But what he seems to be saying is that what is his, is his; and what belongs to Costa Rica is negotiable. He is behaving in an arrogant fashion. If someone were to start arguing that they have certain rights to your house, the thing to do is to slam a door in their face and then to express to your neighbors your opinion of the conflict, so that everyone has a good idea about what is going on.