Costa Rica's Population
Growth Rate Slow
The population of Costa
Rica continues on a slow
growth rate. The growth
rate by 2015 is expected
to be a little over 1%,
while the growth rate in
the 1980's was over 3%,
according to a report by
the Centro
Centroamericano de
Población (CCP) of the
Universidad de Costa
Rica (UCR) in
coordination with the
Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Censos (INEC).
The estimate is based on
the national census that
takes in three factors:
births, deaths and
national and
international
immigration.
Additional indicators
including school
enrollment, confirming
an low inclination as
the number of students
enrolled in primary
school fell 4% in the
last seven years.
Jorge Barquero, of the
CCP, said the tendency
is a product of the
increase of longevity
expectation, which has
reached 79 years of age
and the marked decrease
in births.
The study reveals that
in 2006, women had on
average 1.9 children,
while in 1970 the
average was five.
Barquero added that the
slow growth rate is
expected to continue,
estimating that by 2030
the growth rate is
expected at 0.7% and by
2050 it will be 0.2%,
estimating the
population of Costa Rica
to be 6.3 million.
The CCP estimates that
the current population
is 4.4 million and to
reach 5 million by 2015.
The CCP also sees "the
wave of Nicaraguans
arriving" showing signs
of deceleration. The
hypotesis is that by
2025 for every foreigner
arriving, one will be
leaving.
The CCP also estimated
the population
tendencies by area. The
area of Garabito (Jacó
and surrounding areas)
for instance will have
the greatest growth, the
numbers confirmed by
school enrollment.
Other areas of expected
growth are the north
Caribbean sectors like
Sarapiquí, Pococí,
Guácimo and Matina,
while the southern zone
- Osa, Golfito, Coto
Brus and Corredores -
will see the least
growth.
The slow growth rate
offers advantages and
challenges, according to
the CCP.
On the plus side, the
slow growth allows for a
greater number of middle
aged population, which
constitutes a great
productive force. On the
minus side, the
demographics indicate a
growth in seniors, which
will be a challenge for
the pension and health
systems.
According to Alberto
Acuña Ulate, manager of
Pensiones de la Caja
Costarricense de Seguro
Social (CCSS) - state
pension fund - the CCSS
has created reforms to
maintain the pension
system for the next 40
years.
The expectation is that
the "seniors" population
will go from the current
5.6% to 20% by 2050,
which means the CCSS has
to constantly revise the
population growth to be
able to meet the
demands, according to
Ulate.
Today, for every
pensioner seven people
work. By the mid
century, the number will
be down to three. |
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