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RELIGION-LATIN AMERICA:
Praying to God -
and Betting on the Next Pope
Diego Cevallos*
MEXICO CITY, (IPS) - If
the Catholic Church worked like
a democracy, the chances that
the next pope would be from
Latin America would be high.
Around 45 percent of the world's
Catholics live in this region,
and at least nine of the
cardinals whose names are
mentioned as possible candidates
are Latin American.
But the only thing the faithful
in this region can do is pray
for their favourites -- or bet.
Students from a Mexican
university affiliated with the
Catholic Church have chosen the
latter, and one of them told IPS
that in the betting, the
region's candidates are "on the
heels" of the European
cardinals.
A survey conducted early this
month in Mexico by IPSOS-Bimsa,
a private polling firm, found
that 41 percent of respondents
want the successor to Pope John
Paul II to come from Latin
America or Africa.
The Polish-born Pope died on
Apr. 2, after a 26-year
pontificate.
An online poll by the Argentine
daily La Nación found that the
favourite among Catholics in the
region was German Cardinal
Joseph Ratzinger, closely
followed by Argentine Cardinal
Jorge Bergoglio.
Despite the large proportion of
the world's Catholics living in
Latin America, this region only
produced 17.3 percent of the 115
members of the College of
Cardinals who began to meet
Monday in the Vatican to choose
the successor to Pope John Paul
II.
And Brazil and Mexico, the two
countries in the world with the
largest Catholic populations,
only have seven votes in the
conclave.
In the Church, "the size of the
flock is not the important thing
when it comes to choosing a
pope, although it will have some
influence," Rodolfo Casillas, a
Mexican academic who specialises
in religion, told IPS.
"The Church is more like a
monarchy, and the cardinals who
come from countries with power
and wealth apparently have a
greater chance of becoming pope.
But we'll see if that's true
this week," said Casillas, who
is also a researcher at the
Latin American Faculty of Social
Sciences.
Among the Latin American
cardinals who have a chance,
according to observers, are
Honduran Cardinal Oscar
Rodríguez Maradiaga, Argentina's
Bergoglio, Darío Castrillón and
Alfonso López Trujillo from
Colombia, Javier Errázuriz from
Chile, Brazil's Claudio Hummes,
Mexico's Norberto Rivera, Jaime
Ortega from Cuba and Juan Luis
Cipriani from Peru.
The most talked-about is
Rodríguez Maradiaga, a
62-year-old Salesian with
impressive academic credentials
and some ideas that go over well
with "progressive" factions
within the Church.
For example, he has called for
the cancellation of the
developing world's foreign debt,
has defended the environment,
and advocates a preferential
option for the poor (the idea
that underlies liberation
theology).
Bergoglio, 68, is a Jesuit who
some see as espousing the
Church's social causes, while
others say he collaborated with
Argentina's 1976-1983 military
dictatorship.
The third most widely mentioned
is 70-year-old Hummes from
Brazil. As a bishop, he opposed
the military dictatorship
(1964-1985) in his country and
backed several labour strikes.
However, some analysts say that
with the passage of time, he has
become more and more
conservative, and point out that
he has reprimanded priests who
have recommended the use of
condoms to prevent the spread of
HIV/AIDS.
But observers both within and
outside the Church say the three
stand little chance of being
selected.
The next pope will undoubtedly
be a European, because the
cardinals from that region "have
a superiority complex that they
cannot hide" and form "a
majority in the conclave," said
Brazilian Cardinal Aloísio
Lorscheider, who does not have
the right to vote because he is
over 80.
A similar view was expressed by
Paulo Evaristo Arns, archbishop
emeritus of the southern
Brazilian city of Sao Paulo. The
possibility of the next pope
being Latin American "is very
small because we are still on
the fringes of the
world...history is made in
Europe, Asia and North America,"
he said.
Although there are 117 cardinals
eligible to vote, two are not
present in the conclave due to
illness. Of the 115 who are
meeting, 58 are European, 20 are
Latin American, 14 are from the
United States and Canada, 11
hail from Africa, 10 from Asia
and two from Oceania.
But it is not only a question of
influence.
Brazilian priest José Oscar
Beozzo, a theologian and former
chairman of the Commission for
Studies of the History of the
Church in Latin America, said in
an interview that "there could
be surprises in the conclave, as
history has shown, because of
the methodology used."
"Prior to the vote, the
cardinals discuss the situation
of the Church around the world,
its needs and challenges, based
on reports received from
countries or regions. Later the
kind of pope needed to address
these requirements is decided,"
he said.
"That process would, in general,
run counter to the speculations
and bets based on the positions
or influences attributed to a
possible new pope," argued
Beozzo.
On the web site
www.votefornextpope.com, created
by two Mexicans living in the
United States, 35 percent of the
slightly more than 2,300 people
who have voted so far said they
would prefer a Latin American
pope while 22 percent would like
to seen an African cardinal
selected.
In Chile, the online edition of
the newspaper La Cuarta
organised a forum to discuss the
possibility of the new pope
being black.
One of the participants in the
discussion, who identified
himself as Carlos Llano, said
"blacks have always been
discriminated against" and said
"a white pope with light-coloured
eyes" would emerge from the
conclave.
Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze
is the African candidate with
the strongest chances.
The web site Terra in Brazil is
carrying out an on-line poll,
asking whether the next pope
will be German, Brazilian or
Italian.
The responses by Monday
afternoon indicated that a
Brazilian was in the lead with
36.65 percent of the votes
(15,423), followed by an Italian
(29.34 percent, or 12,346
votes). Only 11.48 percent said
the new pontiff would be German,
while 22.53 percent said "I
don't know".
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio
Lula da Silva, who governs the
country with the largest number
of Catholics in the world (73
percent of the population of 182
million), said early this month
that he would like to see a
Latin American pope, who "would
obviously be much closer to us,
and would be more familiar with
our problems."
But "It would be even better if
he were Brazilian," he added.
The president has openly led the
campaign for Hummes, who has
been a personal friend since
serving as bishop of Sao
Bernardo do Campo, near Sao
Paulo, when Lula was the head of
the metalworkers union and led
labour strikes against the
dictatorship.
The bishop protected him as far
as possible from repression, and
offered churches as refuges for
persecuted trade unionists.
In Bolivia, President Mesa said
it was possible that the new
pope "could come from Latin
America, which has the greatest
number of Catholics in the
world, and high-quality
cardinals who can aspire to
succeeding John Paul II."
For the Venezuelan government's
business attaché in the Vatican,
Abraham Quintero, the selection
of a Latin American pope "would
be a blessing."
José, one of the Mexican
students who set up a betting
ring among his classmates on who
would be the next pope, said he
and his friends were surprised
at the large number of people
who have participated. "Some
have put as much as 200 pesos
(around 20 dollars) on the
Honduran bishop (Rodríguez), but
the favourite has been Ratzinger,"
he said.
As in other religious
educational institutions, where
some of the faculty members are
priests, the students have been
advised to meditate and pray for
the College of Cardinals to
choose the best pope.
But José, who did not want
either his real name or the name
of his university to be
mentioned, in order to avoid
possible reprisals from his
professors, said it was clear
that some of his classmates have
been more attracted to betting
than to prayers.
*With additional reporting by
Marcela Valente in Argentina,
Mario Osava in Brazil, Gustavo
González in Chile, Patricia
Grogg in Cuba and Humberto
Márquez in Venezuela.
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