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BRAZIL:
Latin America's
Giant Has 'Exceptional
Prospects' for Development, Say
Analysts
Mario
Osava
RIO DE JANEIRO, (IPS) -
Brazil has "exceptional
prospects" for development over
the next two decades, a period
that will likely witness the
full integration of the "United
States of South America,"
according to economist Carlos
Lessa.
The dream of uniting the region
-- which dates to Simón Bolívar,
the 19th-century founding father
of South American independence
-- will eventually come true,
because "the First World cannot
offer us any kind of future, so
we will have to seek our own
future, if we want to escape the
fate of Africa, where genocide
by omission is being committed,"
Lessa said in an interview with
IPS.
The former president of this
country's National Economic and
Social Development Bank was one
of the speakers at "Brazil:
Global Development Scenario in
2022", a seminar held Wednesday
in Brasilia by the Brazilian
Centre for Latin American
Studies (CEBELA).
The seminar served to kick off a
series of 15 bimonthly forums
under the general heading,
"Thinking of Brazil in 2022",
aimed at designing a "national
project" to help guide the
country's development over the
next 17 years, according to
Roberto Amaral, former minister
of Science and Technology and
founder of CEBELA.
The year 2022 was chosen as a
point of reference because it
will mark the bicentennial
anniversary of Brazil's
independence from Portugal, a
date of great symbolic
significance.
Lessa began the interview by
stressing that it is difficult
to make predictions so far into
the future, except for certain
demographic aspects, such as the
aging of the Brazilian
population.
This will demand changes in
social policy, like "fewer
schools and more old-age homes,"
and in health care, with greater
emphasis on dealing with
degenerative illnesses through
biotechnology.
Nevertheless, he declared that
Brazil will have a "brilliant
future" because of the major
advantage represented by its
energy resources. Two-thirds of
the country's hydroelectric
potential has yet to be tapped,
and it has only recently begun
to exploit its enormous supply
of renewable energy sources.
Lessa believes that development
is the product of "human effort
plus available energy," which
translates into excellent
prospects not only for Brazil
but for South America as a
whole, which is "blessed by God"
in terms of natural resources.
The obstacle that must be
surmounted is "an elite with no
commitment to national
interests," he said.
This view is shared by Theotonio
dos Santos, a sociologist and
professor of international
economy at the Federal
Fluminense University, who
maintained that a more equal
distribution of income in Brazil
is prevented by "the
insensitivity of the dominant
class."
In his opinion, Brazil could
achieve strong economic growth
over the next 15 or 20 years,
but there will be no substantial
changes in the social inequality
currently facing the country
"without a revolution or
traumatic events."
Whether or not Brazil lives up
to its potential for a
"brilliant" future depends on
the consolidation of the
political front made up of the
trade union movement, leftist
political parties, and the
segment of the business
community that opposes the
financial sector's control over
the country's economy.
This front, which emerged in
opposition to the administration
of Fernando Henrique Cardoso
(1995-2002), brought leftist
President Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva to power in the 2002
elections.
In fact, Lula even had the
backing of the military, who
shared his nationalist vision,
and of sectors of the Catholic
Church that supported his social
programmes.
Yet the front that put Lula in
office has become divided over
the economic policies followed
by the current administration,
Dos Santos said.
"Regrouping these forces to
construct a democratic,
nationalist programme is
essential for sustained economic
growth that can at least
partially reduce the current
inequalities," he said.
To reach this goal, the weight
of the financial sector would
have to be reduced, because it
now eats up 12 percent of the
country's gross domestic product
(GDP) through high interest
rates on the national debt
alone, leading to an
unacceptable concentration of
wealth, he added.
Moreover, Dos Santos warned,
this economic growth must be
achieved in the next 15 to 20
years, while the international
economic situation remains
favourable and marked by global
trade expansion.
After that time, the current
cycle will come to an end, he
predicted, with the dollar
losing strength and being
reduced to a "regional
currency."
"If Brazil does not grow in the
next 15 years, it will never
amount to anything, and it will
face a colossal crisis, because
the social problems reflected in
urban violence today will turn
into a political confrontation,"
he added.
The closer ties with Asia and
Africa being promoted by the
current administration are a
positive sign, with China in
particular giving a boost to
Brazil's exports.
Brazil is now developing a more
"global vision", and the example
provided by Asia could encourage
the current government to place
the necessary priority on
education, another essential
factor for economic growth, Dos
Santos concluded.
Increasing investment in
education, science and
technology is essential for
development in the near future,
Amaral agreed. The state can
promote scientific advances
through the universities, but
technological advances depend on
the private sector, which will
not invest resources in research
and development if there are no
prospects for economic growth,
he said.
"No country in the world has
developed without a national
project, or without
systematically investing in
knowledge," he said, adding that
the project in question is based
on two primary concerns:
democracy and the search for a
"less unjust society."
It is unacceptable that Brazil,
one of the world's 12 largest
economies, ranks 85th in terms
of per capita income, and is one
of the countries with the worst
degree of inequality, he
maintained.
In addition, because Brazil is a
vast, highly diverse country, it
will also need to pursue greater
"technological diversity",
ranging from cutting edge
computer applications to the
traditional technologies already
in place, which provide a large
number of jobs, "without ruling
out any that could make the
country more competitive," he
said.
The speakers at the seminar
series include Renato Janine
Ribeiro, professor of philosophy
at the University of Sao Paulo,
who will stress the importance
of culture, and Catholic
theologian Leonardo Boff, a
leading figure in the Liberation
Theology movement. |
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