Free Trade Agreement on Slippery Slope
President Bush will pursue his top trade initiative today as he welcomes six Latin American leaders to the White House, but the trade agreement Bush seeks faces serious trouble in Congress and could be defeated by his fellow Republicans.

The six presidents Bush is to meet with today are Abel Pacheco of Costa Rica, Enrique Bolaños of Nicaragua, Ricardo Maduro of Honduras,  Oscar Berger of Guatemala, Tony Saca of El Salvador and Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Republic.

With showdown votes just weeks away, the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) still lacks majority support in the Senate and the House, with a near-solid phalanx of Democrats lined up in opposition and key Republicans in open revolt.

The battle over CAFTA illustrates the crosscurrents that swirl through Congress whenever a major trade issue surfaces, as local political imperatives often trump party loyalty. The trade controversy also underscores the pitfalls of Bush's strategy of relying on his slim majorities in Congress to enact a Republican agenda.

Moreover, it hints at the limits to the political capital that a newly reelected Bush had claimed only six months ago, now that his job approval ratings are declining amid rising gasoline prices and the resurgent violence in
Iraq.

The Bush administration and its allies on Capitol Hill concede the uphill struggle for CAFTA, but insist they will prevail.

"We're not there yet," said Rep. Kevin Brady, who was leading the charge in the House.

A Bush loss on the pact would have repercussions far beyond trade with the six countries.

It could accelerate Bush's lame-duck status and perhaps weaken him politically to the point of impairing his ability to successfully push other controversial priorities.

Modeled after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which liberalized trade among the United States, Mexico and Canada, CAFTA would end most tariffs and import restrictions on trade between the six nations and the United States.

The administration says the pact would create, after Mexico, the second-largest export market in Latin America for U.S. goods and services, valued at us$15 billion a year.  The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated that CAFTA would expand U.S. farm exports by us$1.5 billion annually.

Rob Portman, the U.S. trade representative, has argued that the pact would help ease America's trade deficit by allowing the U.S. to compete more effectively against China, especially in the clothing business. Garment factories in Central America and the Dominican Republic make up the second-biggest market for U.S. textile fabrics and yarns.

The administration further contends that CAFTA would raise living standards in Central America and the Dominican Republic, and thus promote freedom and democracy.