HONDURAS: Brazil Ups the Ante
By Mario Osava
RIO DE JANEIRO (IPS) - Brazil's claim to a
permanent seat on the United Nations
Security Council could be strengthened if
its decision to provide protection for
ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya in
its embassy turns out well, or it could see
complications arise as the result of a new
reputation for carrying out Hugo Chávez-style
"bold actions."
The reference by Brazilian political
scientist Clovis Brigagão, director of the
Candido Mendes University Centre for
American Studies in Rio de Janeiro, was to
Venezuela's firebrand President Chávez.
But however the crisis in Honduras turns
out, Brazil has stepped up its profile as a
leader on the international stage, said the
analyst: "It has stopped being the friendly
behind-the-scenes conciliator and has
decidedly joined the leadership game."
The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula
da Silva has finally shown "it's leader's
face" and "will win many points" if Zelaya's
presence in the Brazilian embassy in
Tegucigalpa forces negotiations with the de
facto government of Roberto Micheletti and
Honduras returns to the rule of law. But
there is also a risk of disaster, if violent
clashes and further deaths occur, he said.
On Jun. 28, Zelaya was removed from his home
by the military at gunpoint and put on a
plane for Costa Rica, after he tried to
organise a non-binding referendum asking
voters if they wanted to rewrite the
constitution – an initiative that was ruled
unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
He snuck back into Honduras on Sept. 21 and
took shelter in the Brazilian embassy in the
capital. Although Micheletti and Zelaya met
last week with the four leading presidential
candidates to run in the Nov. 29 elections,
paving the way for talks, the process
apparently stalled over the weekend.
The de facto government gave Brazil 10 days
to declare whether Zelaya had been given
asylum, warning that it would shut down the
embassy if it did not comply. But Lula
responded that his government does not
recognise Micheletti's ultimatum.
On Sunday, the de facto regime suspended key
civil liberties, banning protests for 45
days, making it easier for the police and
army to arrest people without a warrant, and
allowing authorities to shut down media
outlets on the argument that they were
inciting rebellion. Two stations – Radio
Globo and TV Channel 36, which frequently
broadcast interviews with Zelaya and his
supporters - were raided and closed down on
Sunday.
The de facto authorities also denied entry
to an Organisation of American States (OAS)
delegation that had come to Honduras to
mediate a solution to the crisis.
Brazil's "robust action" in Honduras is not
the only sign that the country's foreign
policy has shifted gears. South America's
giant also "showed its teeth" with the
purchase of French military equipment and
the more than 50 percent increase in its
defence budget for 2010, to 7.2 billion
dollars, said Brigagão. The strategic
alliance with France, forged during
President Nicolas Sarkozy's Sept. 7 visit to
Brasilia, will elevate the international
status of both nations, he said.
Diplomacy and defence, which were previously
not connected in Brazilian foreign policy,
"have begun to converge," said the analyst.
With respect to Zelaya's surreptitious
return to Honduras and his sheltering in the
Brazilian embassy, Brigagão believes it was
an "internationally coordinated action,"
although he did not assert that things had
been previously worked out with Brazilian
authorities. He did point out, however, that
the ousted Honduran president visited
Brasilia on Aug. 12.
For his part, former Brazilian ambassador
João Clemente Baena Soares told IPS that "I
don't believe previous conversations had
taken place."
Baena, who was secretary general of the OAS
from 1984 to 1994, said the Lula
administration was doing a good job handling
a "truly unusual situation."
Zelaya's presence in the Brazilian embassy
has generated a great deal of speculation
and contradictory opinions, he said. But it
was well known that the ousted leader
intended to return to Tegucigalpa one way or
another, and his choice of refuge once he
managed to do so was only logical, since
Brazil "is a balanced country," and
alternatives like Venezuela or the United
States presented "obvious inconveniences."
"There was nothing Machiavellian about
this," said Baena.
In past decades, de facto governments in
Latin America were often formally recognised
by the rest of the region if they had
effective control over the national
territory, he said. The principles of
self-determination and non-interference in
the internal affairs of other countries were
often used to justify support for regimes
installed by means of coups.
That changed after the Inter-American
Democratic Charter was adopted by the OAS in
2001 and as a result of democracy clauses
included in international agreements and
adopted by regional blocs, like the Southern
Common Market (Mercosur) and European Union,
said Baena.
"The idea of preserving democracy is taking
root throughout the international community,
accompanied by strong reactions against any
violation of the rules of democracy," he
said. In the case of Honduras, "no state has
recognised the de facto government" of
Micheletti – not even the United States,
which always used to do so, he underscored.
The United States has even threatened that
it will not recognise the results of the
elections scheduled for Nov. 29 (Zelaya's
term is to end in January). Last week, the
United Nations froze its technical support
for the elections.
Brazil's protection of Zelaya is justified
because he is the only president of Honduras
formally recognised by this country, said
Baena. For the sake of coherence, the Lula
administration cannot negotiate with the
Micheletti regime, and has thus ruled out a
role as mediator, said Baena, who is a
member of the Inter-American Juridical
Committee, an OAS advisory body.
"The only way out of this is a negotiated
solution," he said, referring to the
situation created by the presence of two
presidents in one country, one of whom has
the support of the entire international
community while the other controls the
levers of power in the country.
"They won't invade the embassy," Baena said.
But the compound has been completely
surrounded by troops since Zelaya appeared
there last week; water, power and telephone
services to the embassy have been cut off;
and the authorities have allegedly used
noise blasts and non-lethal gas bombs
against Zelaya's supporters in the embassy.
At a special meeting on Honduras last
Friday, the U.N. Security Council condemned
"acts of intimidation" at the Brazilian
embassy as a violation of the Vienna
Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and
called on the de facto government to stop
"harassing" the embassy, in response to a
request and complaints by Brazil. However,
it did not discuss the political crisis
itself.
Because he has not formally requested
asylum, Zelaya has "sui generis status" in
the embassy. But Brazil has every right to
grant him "legal protection" because its
diplomatic representation has a "sovereign"
right to take in anyone, Luciana Diniz,
academic coordinator at the Centre on
International Law in Belo Horizonte, told
IPS.
If the embassy allows access to journalists
or friends who want to interview or meet
with Zelaya, no meddling in internal affairs
is taking place, but both meddling and
infringement of international conventions
are occurring when the de facto government
restricts services as well as the entry and
exit of people at the embassy, she said.
Brazil is not only acting based on a
question of democratic principles, but also
out of an interest in ensuring political
stability in neighbouring countries, because
a signal that the Jun. 28 coup was tolerated
would set a negative precedent in the
region, said Tullo Vigevani, a political
science professor at the São Paulo State
University.
The coup in Honduras broke the rules of the
democratic system, despite the claims by its
defenders that Zelaya violated the
constitution and was legally removed by
Congress and the Supreme Court, said
Vigevani, who emphasised that the Micheletti
regime did not follow the constitutional
procedures for impeachment.
The most likely solution would be
negotiations facilitated by a multilateral
body like the OAS, because Brazil has to
avoid granting de facto recognition to the
Micheletti regime, said the expert on
international relations.
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