BOLIVIA: A Race with a Foregone Conclusion
By Franz Chávez
LA PAZ (IPS) - President Evo Morales
and Vice President Álvaro García are set to
handily win the Dec. 6 elections in Bolivia,
against a fragmented opposition.
In a Gallup International poll published
early this month, more than 57 percent of
respondents said they would vote for the
left-wing Morales, compared to less than 10
percent each for the two most popular
right-leaning candidates, Samuel Doria
Medina of the National Unity Front (FUN) and
former Cochabamba governor Manfred Reyes
Villa of the New Republican Force (NFR).
A total of eight presidential candidates
registered last week to run for the
2010-2015 period.
A second term for Morales, who took office
in January 2006 after winning 53.7 percent
of the vote, would give the Movement to
Socialism (MAS) a chance to consolidate what
it has called the "re-founding" of the
Bolivian state on the basis of greater
participation by indigenous people and a
strengthening of their rights.
Indigenous people in Bolivia, South
America's poorest country, make up a
majority of the population - approximately
60 percent of a total of 9.3 million people
- but have long suffered discrimination.
They were not allowed to vote until 1952,
and Morales is the country's first-ever
indigenous president.
The country is basically divided between the
western highlands, home to the poor
indigenous majority, and the much wealthier
eastern and southeastern provinces, which
account for most of the country's natural
gas production, industry, agribusiness and
gross domestic product. The population of
eastern Bolivia tends to be of more Spanish
and mestizo (mixed-race) than indigenous
descent.
The Morales administration has also
distanced itself from the United States,
which has historically had a strong
influence on Bolivia.
Just a few months into his term, Morales re-nationalised
the country's vast natural gas reserves,
renegotiated the terms of the contracts
under which foreign oil firms are operating
in the country, and raised royalties and
taxes on natural gas, which stood at just 18
percent from 1996 to 2005.
Since February, Bolivia has a new
constitution, one of whose central aims is
to bolster the rights of indigenous people.
For example, native communities will decide
how to manage local development and
administer local natural resources. In
addition, the document designates the
Bolivian state as "pluri-national", in
recognition of the country's 36 native
peoples, as well as blacks.
The constitution also stipulates that all
Bolivians have the right to water, food,
education, health care, retirement pensions,
housing, electricity, telecommunications and
other basic services, which the state has
the obligation to ensure access to in an
efficient, equitable manner.
Furthermore, the constitution bans the
privatisation of water and sewage services,
and says the country's natural resources are
the property of the Bolivian people and are
to be administered by the state, "in the
collective interest."
It also strengthens women's rights,
guaranteeing equal pay for men and women
with the same job, and prohibits
discrimination on the basis of sex, gender
identity or sexual orientation.
But the opposition accuses the president of
excessive concentration of power.
The head of the La Paz association of
political scientists, Franklin Pareja, told
IPS that if Morales is reelected, he will
continue to head in the same direction, with
the aim of "total hegemony," while the
opposition will attempt to offset the
governing party's strength.
Besides MAS's control over both houses of
Congress, it is "fighting for the privilege
of rewriting the history of the country, in
a more radical manner than up to now,"
according to Pareja.
Analyst Carlos Toranzo said the right-wing
opposition has been weakened since violent
incidents last year in the central city of
Santa Cruz - when radical right-wing youth
groups encouraged by pro-business civic
committees and opposition governors held
violent protests, storming government
buildings – and over rumours of ties to
terrorist plans.
In another violent incident, in connection
with which the then right-wing governor of
the northern province of Pando, Leopoldo
Fernández, was arrested, at least 15
indigenous people were shot to death when a
group of Morales supporters were ambushed on
their way to a pro-government rally in
September 2008.
But "the concentration of power without
dialogue has allowed the resurgence of
figures from the past," said Pareja, who was
referring precisely to Fernández, chosen by
Reyes Villa, a former army officer, as his
running-mate. (Fernández is in prison and
facing charges for instigating the September
2008 massacre.)
At the head of the Plan Progreso para
Bolivia-Convergencia Nacional movement,
Reyes Villa is attempting to unite the
fragmented opposition movement.
"Internal and external pressures" have
helped the right come together somewhat
around two main candidates, Reyes Villa and
Doria Medina - the wealthiest man in Bolivia
- analyst Marcos Domic told IPS.
However, the right-wing and centre-right
parties have not presented a clear political
platform that could serve as an attractive
alternative to voters, said Domic. "Their
plan is to defeat Morales and change the
model of government – an unachievable goal,"
he said.
The analyst said the strategy of the
governing MAS is to reach beyond its poor
working class, peasant and indigenous
support base and try to win over more votes
among middle-class professionals and
intellectuals, by including figures like
former ombudswoman Ana María Romero on its
party lists.
Pareja concurred with Domic that the
opposition lacks a clear platform, and said
that what unity there is on the right
involves "pragmatic alliances, based on the
search for political survival."
Reyes Villa has won lukewarm support from
some opposition leaders in the so-called
"eastern crescent", the name given to the
area made up of the relatively wealthy
provinces of Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz and
Tarija, which have sought autonomy.
"An eclectic opposition" will contest the
December general elections, said Pareja. In
his view, currents on both the left and the
right have come together in movements that
do not have clearly defined political
ideologies, unlike parties in Europe, for
instance.
"It's a mistake when they try to depict us
as two broad fronts in confrontation,
because in purely theoretical terms the
left-wing and right-wing fronts do not
exist. Our composition is not as radical and
clearly defined as they make out," Pareja
argued.
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