Tuesday 25 November 2008, San José, Costa
Rica
VENEZUELA:
Opposition Win Key
Districts
Analysis by Humberto
Márquez
CARACAS (IPS) - The
followers of Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez
are celebrating a sweet
and sour victory,
because while they won
17 of the 22 states up
for grabs in Sunday’s
regional elections, the
opposition took the most
populous and politically
and economically
important states.
The opposition held onto
the two states it had
won four years ago and
won three other key
states. In addition, it
won the mayoral seats in
Caracas and Maracaibo,
the country’s
second-largest city.
Chávez, who personally
ran the campaign in
critical states,
modified his previously
confrontational tone:
"I, as head of state,
congratulate you,
recognise your triumph,
and hope that they will
recognise the head of
government, the
constitution, and the
people."
The opposition leaders
who were elected also
offered to work together
with the central
government.
And everyone involved in
the process, starting
with the president of
the National Electoral
Council, Tibisay Lucena,
celebrated the heavy
turnout of nearly 66
percent -- an unusually
high rate for regional
and municipal elections.
The high turnout was
partly due to the fact
that Chávez turned the
vote into a referendum
on his leadership,
repeating over and over
again that a vote for
his allies was a vote
for him.
Since Chávez took office
in 1999, elections of
one kind or another have
been held just about
every year, and the
results have remained
largely the same: the
country remains
politically divided in
two parts, with a
majority in favour of
the left-wing president.
"There is a balance of
forces in favour of
Chavismo, but with an
opposition that are
recovering from the
mistakes they made
earlier this decade, and
that are consolidating
their hold over certain
areas, mainly in urban
middle- and upper-class
districts, and winning
in new areas,"
sociologist Leopoldo
Puchi, a leader of the
centre-left Movement
Towards Socialism, told
IPS.
The results
Luis León, director of
the Datanálisis polling
firm, commented to IPS
that "the symbols gained
by the opposition were
better than what could
have been hoped for,
because they won in the
capital and in states
that represent the
country’s economic and
political heart."
The opposition held onto
the states of Zulia and
Nueva Esparta. The
former, an oil-producing
and agricultural state
in the northwest, on the
border with Colombia, is
the most populous,
richest state, and has a
distinct regional
culture.
Zulia Governor Manuel
Rosales, who faces
serious allegations of
corruption, ran against
the president in 2003,
taking 38 percent of the
vote, compared to
Chávez’s 61 percent. On
Sunday, he was reelected
as mayor of Maracaibo,
the capital of Zulia,
while his heir apparent,
Pablo Pérez, was elected
governor.
Nueva Esparta, a state
heavily dependent on
tourism that comprises
Margarita Island and
other Venezuelan islands
in the Caribbean,
remained a solid
opposition stronghold.
The opposition also won
the state of Carabobo,
the main manufacturing
region, west of Caracas,
and Táchira, in the
Andean highlands on the
western border with
Colombia, which like
Zulia has a very strong
regional identity.
The fifth state that
went to the opposition
is Miranda, the
second-biggest in terms
of population, as it
includes the eastern
part of Caracas. It is a
state of commuter
suburbs, tourism and
agriculture.
In addition, the
opposition took the
capital, home to 60
percent of the residents
of Greater Caracas.
One painful outcome for
Chávez and his allies
was the loss of Petare,
where nearly one-third
of Caracas residents
live, mainly in
shantytowns that line
the hills. The
working-class district,
a bastion of Chavismo,
elected young opposition
leader Carlos Ocariz,
who beat Jesse Chacón, a
member of the
president’s inner
circle.
Analysts like Puchi and
Oscar Schémel of the
Hinterlaces polling firm
said that in some cases,
like Petare and Miranda
state, voters punished
political leaders seen
as ineffective or out of
touch with the poor.
The president’s allies
won several Andean
highlands states,
industrial and
agricultural states in
the north, oil-producing
states in the east,
mining and industrial
states in the southeast,
and states in the
central and western
plains region.
One major gain for
Chavismo was the defeat
of dissidents who
refused to join the
president’s United
Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV), and
who ran unsuccessfully
in half a dozen states,
in some cases backed by
the Communist and
Fatherland for All
parties.
The five states whose
governors, elected in
alliances backed by
Chávez in 2004,
distanced themselves
from the president in
the last 18 months, were
recovered by Chávez
allies, with the
exception of Carabobo,
which went to Henrique
Salas, the
representative of a kind
of opposition political
dynasty.
More multi-coloured map
The states and key
cities won by the
opposition, along with
dozens of smaller towns
offer a more variegated
political map of
Venezuela and
opportunities for
building new
leaderships.
The opposition "has
returned to the state
apparatus," sociologist
Tulio Hernández told IPS.
The 2005 parliamentary
elections were boycotted
by the opposition, and
as a result all 167
seats in the legislature
were taken by Chávez
supporters.
From the posts they have
won, "the opposition
have the opportunity to
perform well at the
regional and local
level, to gain strength
as an alternative, and
to build an alternative
leadership and political
project," said Hernández.
The areas governed by
the opposition are home
to 45 percent of the
population and generate
70 percent of the
country’s GDP.
León said that with the
new panorama, "Chávez
will have to negotiate
in key regions and will
not be able to carry out
the threats he made
during the campaign,"
like sending some
opponents to jail on
corruption charges or
cutting off funding to
opposition governments.
Now what?
First, Chávez will have
to take a careful look
at the outcome of the
elections to determine
whether or not it is a
good idea to once again
attempt to push through
a constitutional
amendment that would
allow him to run for
president indefinitely
after his current
six-year term ends in
January 2013.
A constitutional
amendment including that
change and a raft of
reforms of the state was
narrowly voted down by
51 percent of voters in
a referendum in late
2007.
Nor did the opposition
win enough votes to
seriously consider
another recall
referendum -- Chávez
handily won such a
referendum in August
2004 with 67 percent of
the vote -- or to try to
convene a new
constituent assembly to
overhaul the
constitution that was
rewritten under Chávez.
The opposition will now
have to wait until the
2010 parliamentary
elections to gain new
ground.
The defeat of Chávez
allies in Caracas,
Carabobo and Zulia could
lead to a reshuffling of
forces within the
governing PSUV.
It is not yet clear
whether Chávez will
interpret the results as
giving him a new mandate
to "deepen the
revolution," as he did
when he was reelected in
2006 with 61 percent of
the vote.
The outlook will be more
complex next year, due
to the plunge in oil
prices in the context of
the current global
financial crisis.
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