BOLIVIA:
Uncertain Political
Future in Wake of
Autonomy Votes
By Franz Chávez
LA PAZ (IPS) - The
political future in
Bolivia is unpredictable
following the autonomy
referendums in the
provinces of Santa Cruz,
Beni, Pando and Tarija,
whose governors
interpret the triumph of
the pro-autonomy
position as a vote of
confidence and a victory
over President Evo
Morales.
Sunday’s vote in the
southern province of
Tarija was virtually a
repeat of the
referendums held earlier
this year in the other
three provinces, with 80
percent of voters coming
out in favour of an
autonomy statute adopted
by the provincial
government, according to
the exit polls.
But as in the three
earlier referendums,
held on May 4 in Santa
Cruz in the east and
Jun. 1 in Beni and Pando
in the north, the
abstention rate stood at
between 30 and 40
percent.
There were only a few
incidents in rural
towns, where supporters
of Morales set fire to
ballot boxes and kept
people from voting.
The challenge to the
government of Morales,
Bolivia’s first
indigenous president,
mounted by the country’s
wealthier northern,
eastern and southeastern
provinces, which are
rich in natural gas and
other resources, was
further strengthened by
the approval of the
autonomy statute in
Tarija.
The autonomy
referendums, which run
counter to the Bolivian
constitution, have been
criticised as an attempt
at separatism.
The four rightwing
governors -- known as
prefects in Bolivia --
are seeking
decentralisation and
greater control over the
revenues from the
natural gas and other
resources in their
provinces by means of
the creation of
provincial assemblies
and local tax collection
mechanisms.
Bolivia’s natural gas
reserves, the
second-largest in South
America after
Venezuela’s, bring in
1.2 billion dollars a
year in taxes and
royalties, and are the
country’s main source of
foreign exchange.
The country’s biggest
oil and gas deposits are
in Tarija and Santa
Cruz.
The main support base of
the leftist Morales and
his Movement to
Socialism (MAS) are the
country’s indigenous
majority, based in
Bolivia’s impoverished
western highlands.
Another factor of
uncertainty is the Aug.
10 recall referendum for
the president, vice
president, and eight of
the country’s nine
governors that was
suggested by the
rightwing PODEMOS
movement and approved by
the legislature. (The
governor of Chuquisaca
is up for election on
Jun. 29, because the MAS
governor resigned).
The Morales
administration and the
rightwing governors have
expressed a willingness
to engage in talks on
the two big issues in
dispute: the four
autonomy statutes
approved in provincial
referendums, and the new
constitution to be
ratified in a national
referendum, the draft of
which was approved in
December by the MAS
majority in the
constituent assembly in
a vote that was
boycotted by the
opposition.
But on Sunday, Deputy
Minister of Justice
Wilfredo Chávez
reiterated that the
autonomy votes were
illegal, and the
opposition has begun to
talk about avoiding the
recall referendum and
beginning to build the
autonomy process, based
on the strong support
expressed in the
provincial referendums.
The distancing of the
two sides from the
possibility of dialogue
comes at a critical
moment for the
government, which is
facing difficulties in
guaranteeing domestic
fuel supplies and
preventing the
contraband of fuel to
neighbouring countries,
where prices are much
higher.
Compounding these
problems are the rise in
food prices and pressure
from public transport
associations to raise
bus ticket prices.
Morales is also facing a
strike and roadblocks on
routes leading to the
province of Potosí,
organised by small-scale
miners who refuse to pay
taxes on their
production, despite the
current boom in the
price of tin.
In spite of the adverse
political climate faced
by the Morales
administration, the
popular movements that
support the government
continue to stand strong
behind their demands for
empowerment of the
country’s indigenous
people, who have long
suffered discrimination,
and the profound
democratic and cultural
changes promised by the
indigenous president.
On Saturday, Morales
launched his campaign in
search of ratification
of support for his
government’s
achievements, while Vice
President Álvaro García
Linera came out to
defend the
administration from
accusations of poor
economic performance.
García Linera noted, for
example, that the
current annualised
inflation rate of 12
percent is no higher
than the rates seen
during the rightwing
administrations that
governed Bolivia from
1986 to 1997.
Morales is confident
that he will achieve the
53.7 percent of the
votes that he took in
December 2005, when he
was elected president.
Morales, the vice
president and the
governors will have to
take as many or more
votes as they won when
they were elected, in
order to stay in office.
But several of the six
opposition governors are
worried that they will
fail to gain the
proportion of votes that
they took in December
2005, in the first
popular elections for
provincial governors
(until then, the
prefects were
presidential
appointees).
Governors Rubén Costas
of Santa Cruz and
Ernesto Suárez of Beni
are confident that they
will be ratified in
their posts in the
recall referendum, but
Tarija governor Mario
Cossío is facing
accusations of
embezzlement and heavy
opposition in rural
areas, which endanger
his hold on power.
In Pando, rightwing
governor Leopoldo
Fernández has failed to
win support in rural
areas and poor
neighbourhoods on the
outskirts of the
provincial capital,
Cobija.
Also worried is retired
captain Manfred Reyes
Villa, who heads the
government of the
central province of
Cochabamba, where coca
growers and other
followers of Morales are
opposed to his support
for provincial autonomy.
In the province of La
Paz, a MAS stronghold,
opposition governor José
Luis Paredes stands to
lose the recall
referendum, according to
analysts. |
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