NICARAGUA:
A Hard Rain Is Gonna
Fall
By José Adán Silva
MANAGUA (IPS) -
Having been hit by three
hurricanes and 25
tropical storms in less
than 10 years, Nicaragua
is looking ahead to the
next rainy season, due
to begin in May, with
wariness and
trepidation.
The government is
alarmed by forecasts of
an active cyclone season
ahead.
Colorado State
University in the United
States has forecast that
during the North
Atlantic hurricane
season from June to
November this year,
there will probably be
15 named tropical
storms, eight of which
will become hurricanes.
Four of these will be
capable of inflicting
severe damage, they
predict.
Nicaragua’s Civil
Defence chief, Colonel
Mario Pérez-Cassar, told
IPS he is taking this
forecast seriously,
because over the years
the university’s
predictions have been
"98 percent accurate."
"Every year we assess
the different scenarios
and analyse climate
conditions using
national and
international
instruments," he said.
Forecasts by Dr. William
Gray, a Colorado State
University meteorologist
with 25 years’
experience of predicting
hurricanes, "are always
accurate, so this year
we are preparing for the
worst."
Pérez-Cassar said the
army is drawing up
evacuation and shelter
plans for at least half
a million Nicaraguans
living in 996 areas that
are extremely vulnerable
to storms and flooding.
He estimates a 50
percent chance that
Nicaragua will be lashed
by another hurricane
like Felix, a Category 5
storm that destroyed a
large part of the North
Atlantic Autonomous
Region (RAAN) in the
northeast of the country
last year. Category 5 is
the highest level of
hurricane intensity on
the Saffir-Sampson
scale.
Hurricane Felix
devastated the RAAN on
Sept. 4, 2007, killing
102 people, with another
130 people missing and
220,000 left homeless.
Damages were assessed at
900 million dollars, and
crops in the region were
totally destroyed,
according to official
data. Earlier, in 1998
and 2005 respectively,
hurricanes Mitch and
Beta pounded Nicaragua,
causing over 3,000
deaths and billions of
dollars of damage to
infrastructure and to
the country’s productive
capacity.
Civil Defence statistics
show that since 1998,
Nicaragua has also been
directly affected by 25
tropical storms that
caused floods,
landslides and severe
crop damage.
President Daniel Ortega
has even proposed
suspending municipal
elections in the RAAN,
on the grounds that it
is highly probable that
a string of storms and
hurricanes is heading
that way.
Indigenous communities
in the RAAN are still
suffering the
after-effects of
hurricane Felix and the
forecasts for this year
have magnified fears of
another disaster to
come, said Reverend
Norman Bent, a pastor in
Puerto Cabezas, which
was badly hit by the
hurricane in 2007.
"The coastal areas of
Puerto Cabezas, both to
the north and to the
south, were severely
damaged and houses have
still not been rebuilt.
They are almost exactly
as they were just after
the hurricane; very few
homes have been
rebuilt," he said.
"There isn’t famine as
such, but there is a
shortage of certain
staple foods. People are
not eating as they
should. It’s already
time to plant rice and
other basic products
such as cassava, bananas
and plantains, but
people are reluctant.
They’re afraid another
hurricane will come and
take everything away
from them again," Bent
said.
The Nicaraguan Institute
of Territorial Studies (INETER)
has also predicted a
turbulent rainy season.
"Given the variation in
temperatures of the
continental platform in
the Atlantic off
Nicaragua because of the
effects of global
warming, the conditions
are such that any
tropical storm in that
area will gather
strength and become a
hurricane," it warned.
Following the
announcement of more
heavy rainfall to come,
the mayor’s office in
Managua is taking urgent
measures to clear water
channels and eliminate
refuse dumps.
Modesto Rojas, in charge
of Environment for the
city council, told IPS
that the mayor’s office
is working "at full
steam" to clean the
water channels, which
are clogged with rubbish
after refuse collectors
went on a month-long
strike.
The mayor’s office has
also called on the
national government to
protect the
international airport
and the city centre of
Managua. Deforestation
and erosion on the
mountains surrounding
the capital have
increased the risk of
mudslides.
"Over one million
Managuans are vulnerable
to landslides from the
mountains that form the
southern watershed for
rivers draining into
Lake Managua. This is
not alarmist, it’s a
fact, and the government
must heed the warnings,"
Rojas said. According to
conservationist and
scientist Jaime Incer,
"today more than ever
before, the country is
destroyed and exposed to
natural disasters, not
only because of local
environmental
destruction but also due
to the effects of
climate change."
"In the last 40 years,
we have done everything
possible to make
ourselves naked and
defenceless against
disasters," he
complained, referring to
the destruction of 60
percent of forest
biomass in recent years,
and the pollution of 80
percent of Nicaragua’s
water sources.
Claudio Tomasi, deputy
resident representative
of the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP)
in Nicaragua, said that
climate change can
already be seen in
extreme phenomena such
as hurricanes, tidal
waves, extensive
flooding and lengthy
droughts.
Natural disasters are an
increasing concern all
over the world, since
they limit the ability
of countries to meet the
Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) and to
improve their human
development index
ranking, Tomasi said.
However, the executive
secretary of the
National System for
Disaster Prevention,
Mitigation and Response,
Ramón Arnesto, said that
although there are real
risks, there is also a
great deal of
sensationalism in press
coverage of the issue.
"These forecasts seem to
imply that there is no
safe place anywhere in
Nicaragua," he said.
However, he was not
referring to scientific
models, but to press
reports of predictions
by Giovanna, a Mexican
astrologer, about
Nicaragua’s prospects
for 2008. The astrologer
said that Nicaragua
faces "dark natural
tragedies" in 2008,
including several
volcanic eruptions,
another hurricane, and
in its aftermath the
overflowing of Lake
Managua, "causing a
flood that will affect
several cities." |
