ECONOMY-ARGENTINA:
Mr. Kirchner, the
Éminence Not-So-Grise
By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES (IPS) -
Above and beyond its
impact on the markets or
the economy itself, the
change of economy
minister in Argentina
has clearly demonstrated
the enormous power that
former President Néstor
Kirchner exerts within
the government of his
wife and successor,
President Cristina
Fernández, analysts say.
Martín Lousteau resigned
as economy minister
Thursday night after
hearing Kirchner’s
speech at the launch of
his presidency of the
governing Justicialista
(Peronist) Party (PJ),
in which he indirectly
criticised the
minister’s proposals for
controlling rapidly
increasing consumer
prices.
Lousteau’s replacement
is Carlos Fernández (no
relation to the
president), an economist
who only a few weeks ago
was appointed head of
the Federal
Administration of Public
Revenues (the tax
office). In that
position, he had a very
low profile, but was in
almost daily contact
with Kirchner.
In the reshuffle,
Guillermo Moreno, the
domestic commerce
secretary, was confirmed
in the post he has held
since the Kirchner
administration
(2003-2007), although he
is under fire for his
controversial price
control methods and his
growing influence, which
some observers say is
even greater than that
of the economy minister.
"It’s not that Kirchner
has a growing influence
on the Fernández
administration, but
rather that he is in
charge; he is the
political leader, and
her role is merely
formal," political
scientist Sergio
Berensztein, a professor
at Torcuato Di Tella
University and a member
of the consulting firm
Poliarquia, told IPS.
"The Kirchners believe
that increasing their
political power will
give them control over
inflation, and so they
generate greater
confrontation and
uncertainty," said
Berensztein, who added
that this is not a new
strategy, but one that
has become more
accentuated since the
new government took
office on Dec. 10.
Kirchner’s influence is
an open secret.
Ministers and other
officials admit
privately that the
former president phones
them to tell them what
they should or should
not do. But his début as
head of the PJ and the
change of minister
suggest that Argentina’s
First Gentleman is
beginning to step out of
the wings and into the
limelight.
This view is shared by
several opposition
leaders. Elisa Carrió,
head of the Civic
Coalition, who came
second in the last
presidential elections,
said that "Kirchner is
the real power in
Argentina," and that his
confrontational
character "weakens the
president’s position."
Meanwhile Senator
Gerardo Morales, head of
the Radical Civic Union
party, said that the
replacement of Lousteau
by Carlos Fernández "is
another sign that the
economy continues to be
in Kirchner’s hands."
Economist Claudio
Lozano, a congressman
for Proyecto Sur, said
that Lousteau’s
replacement does not
imply any change in
economic policy because
"it is still being
managed by Kirchner and
Moreno." This continuity
is cause for concern
because of the country’s
growing inflation, which
is fuelling poverty and
inequality, he said.
Less vehemently, Analí
del Franco of the
consulting firm
Analogías, which carries
out opinion polls for
the government, told IPS
that Kirchner has a
"high" level of
involvement in his
wife’s administration,
but denied that his
participation weakened
her. "They are a team.
Their decisions are
always shared," she
said.
"Yes, they are a team,
but he is the one in
charge," Berensztein
amended.
Lousteau’s resignation
took place in the midst
of an unresolved
conflict between the
government and farmers’
associations, and at a
time when inflation
appears to be spiralling
out of control. The
economy minister had
proposed measures to
curb prices, but
Kirchner appeared to
dismiss these out of
hand in his speech
Thursday.
"Those who bankrupted
the country now want to
freeze the economy!
Let’s have an end to
this hypocrisy! To lower
prices, we must get rid
of shameless
speculators!" roared the
former president, to
ovations from the party
faithful.
One hour later, Lousteau
resigned. Cabinet chief
Alberto Fernández (no
relation) said early on
Friday that the
president considered
"his time was up," and
he acknowledged that
some of the departing
economy minister’s
proposals "did not
coincide with the
general interest."
Like many economists,
Lousteau believes that
at present demand is
increasing faster than
supply, and therefore
economic growth, which
has exceeded eight
percent a year since
2003, should slow down
to avoid the price
increases that are
particularly affecting
foods.
He also maintains that
interest rates should be
raised slightly to
encourage saving, and
that the National
Statistics and Census
Institute (INDEC), which
was subjected to
government intervention
by Kirchner in January
2007, should return to
normal functioning.
The institute, under the
control of Secretary
Moreno, has lost
credibility since last
year amid criticism by
experts and a number of
accusations concerning
its statistics.
According to INDEC,
annualised inflation to
March 2008 was 8.8
percent, but private
consulting firms say
that it is at least 26
percent. When she was
sworn in, President
Fernández promised new
methods for measuring
consumer prices, and
Lousteau stated that he
was working on a new
index.
However, the former
minister could not reach
agreement with Moreno
over this issue.
The crisis with
agricultural producers’
associations was
triggered in March by
the announcement of
increased taxes on
soybean exports,
proposed by Lousteau.
Disgruntled farmers
blocked highways in the
interior of the country
for three weeks,
interrupting food
transportation by truck,
until they declared a
truce to participate in
negotiations.
Lousteau kept to the
margins of the talks,
which have so far not
been fruitful, while
Moreno has taken a very
prominent role. Like
Kirchner, Moreno
believes that "shameless
speculators" are to
blame for inflation and
must be combated.
|
