RELIGION:
Little Chance of a Latin American Pope, Say Observers

Diego Cevallos

QUITO,  (IPS) - Observers both inside and outside the Catholic Church believe there are numerous cardinals in Latin America and the Caribbean with sufficient merits to succeed Pope John Paul II, and although they feel such a scenario to be unlikely, they are not completely ruling out a surprise choice.

"There are compelling reasons to believe that a Latin American could be the next leader of the Church, because the region is home to the largest number of Catholics in the world, and John Paul valued and promoted this power," diocesan priest Hugo Reynoso, dean of Theology at the Jesuit-run Catholic University in Quito, Ecuador, told IPS.

Almost half of the world's 1.071 billion Catholics live in Latin America and the Caribbean, while 22 of the 120 members of the College of Cardinals who will choose the next pope hail from this region as well.

Practically all of the Latin American cardinals were appointed by John Paul himself, who placed special emphasis on this part of the world during his 26-year papacy.

Polish-born Karol Wojtyla was chosen to lead the Catholic Church on Oct. 16, 1978, and visited Latin America and Caribbean -- which he called "the continent of hope" - a total of 18 times. His first trip abroad as pope was to Mexico and the Dominican Republic in 1979, and his last trip to the region was in 2002.

Reynoso maintains that despite the importance of the region, "due to internal forces within the Church," where the Europeans and particularly the Italians have a great deal of influence, "it is very unlikely that one of our cardinals will become the next pope."

Carlos Soltero, a priest and head of the Religious Sciences department at the Ibero-American University in Mexico City, agreed that there is little real possibility of a Latin American being chosen by the conclave of cardinals who will elect John Paul's successor.

"There is very little knowledge about the Latin American Church, and I think the most probable scenario is that a European will be chosen," Soltero commented to IPS.

Europe is the region with the largest number of members in the College of Cardinals, with a total of 59.

In the past, speculation and predictions regarding who would be the next pope have always proven wrong. "The process of choosing a pope is an extremely complex one, and venturing a guess is always risky," said Reynoso.

But there could be surprises, he added.

A number of Latin Americans are believed to have at least some possibility of being elected.

Reynoso believes that one of the strongest contenders in the region is Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodríguez Maradiaga, a member of the Salesian order who formerly presided the Latin American Bishops Conference. Although considered orthodox in terms of doctrine, he is open to a Catholic Church with a social commitment.

The second most promising candidate, in his view, is Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the Archbishop of Buenos Aires. Begoglio is a member of the Jesuit order, which has never produced a pope, despite its significant influence within the Catholic Church.

Others who have been mentioned as possible choices from the region are Colombians Darío Castrillón, Vatican prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy, and Alfonso López Trujillo, president of the Pontifical Council for the Family. Both are staunch adherents of the conservative line promoted by John Paul.

Peruvian Juan Luis Cipriani, a former archbishop of Lima and the representative of the ultraconservative Catholic organisation Opus Dei, has also been referred to as a potential successor, as have Cuban Cardinal Jaime Ortega, the Archbishop of Havana, and Chilean Cardinal Francisco Javier Errázuriz, the Archbishop of Santiago.

All of these men have impressive academic credentials, speak numerous languages and have inside knowledge of the complex functioning of the Catholic Church.

Within 15 or 20 days after John Paul's death, all of the cardinals will meet in a conclave in the Vatican, cut off from all outside contact, and decide who will be the next pope.

Elio Masferrer, president of the Latin American Association for the Study of Religion, told IPS that it is "almost impossible" to predict a successor.

In their negotiations, the cardinals do not group themselves according to region, but rather according to language, he said.

"The fact that Latin America has the largest number of Catholics in the world is not very important. What is most important is for the region's cardinals to be able to come to an agreement with their colleagues in the conclave who speak different languages and come from different cultures. Without this, they will not be able to achieve anything," Masferrer maintained.

For his part, Reynoso stressed that the choice made by the conclave will determine the future path to be followed by the Catholic Church.

"With each new pope, the Church makes significant changes, and many of us believe that the time has come to make more," he said, with regard to such issues as birth control, sexual relations and cloning.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, John Paul heavily promoted his own conservative line and worked to marginalise the more progressive sectors of the Church, like the Liberation Theology movement, which had come to wield growing influence in the region prior to his advent.

Yet despite the special attention paid to the region by John Paul, Catholic Church membership in Latin America and the Caribbean actually declined during his papacy, as the cardinals from this area themselves admit.

In Brazil, the country with more Catholics than any other in the world - roughly 100 million, out of a total population of 182 million - the Church loses an estimated half a million followers every year.

The situation is similar in Mexico, the country with the second largest number of Catholics, who now represent less than 85 percent of the country's 104 million inhabitants, which is almost 10 percent less than the estimated proportion in the mid-20th century.

* With additional reporting by Adrián Reyes in México.