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OIL-LATAM:
Soaring Prices Line Pockets or Force Belt Tightening

Humberto Márquez


CARACAS, (IPS) - Soaring oil prices, reaching 50 dollars a barrel, are lining the pockets of several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, forcing others to tighten their belts -- and reminding everyone that regional energy integration remains a distant dream.

Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter with sales of between two and 2.5 million barrels per day, will take in extra revenues of at least 5.5 billion dollars this year, since the average price for 2004 is expected to stand at around 33 dollars a barrel, 13 dollars higher than the price on which the government budget was based.

But in Central America, "the high price of oil is destroying our economies," Salvadoran President Tony Saca recently complained. "Even if the price stabilises at around 30 dollars a barrel, that would still represent a huge increase, because five years ago we were paying nine dollars."

The Venezuelan and Salvadoran situations illustrate the radically different impact of the skyrocketing international price of oil on net energy exporters and importers, an imbalance that Latin America and the Caribbean have few mechanisms to correct.

Saca urged the Organisation of American States (OAS), the United Nations and the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) "to explore ways to help small, poor countries in the region avoid being driven into bankruptcy by the rising prices."


 

 

The present crisis "is an opportunity to revive accords aimed at energy integration, which should start with alliances between the region's oil companies and a shoring up of the badly weakened (Quito-based) Latin American Energy Organisation," Francisco Mieres, with the Central University graduate programme of studies on the oil economy, told IPS.

Throughout the region, national budgets, stock market activity, production costs, inflation, consumption, employment and gross domestic product growth have all been affected by oil prices that are twice as high as they were a year ago, not to mention the obvious impact on government oil and energy policies.

Mexico, the world's eighth biggest oil producer, which depends on petroleum for one-third of its export revenues, has already been able to transfer 1.2 billion dollars in funds to state governments based on windfall oil profits, since its exports are fetching 40 dollars a barrel.

On the other hand, the cost of Mexico's imports of natural gas from the United States is also steadily increasing, and Mexico projects that demand for natural gas will expand from the current 1.2 million cubic feet a day to 4.3 million over the next two decades, according to the Pan-American Engineering Convention.

But worries about the future and the long-term outlook are a luxury that the governments of Mexico's small Central American and Caribbean neighbours cannot afford to entertain, because they are too busy focusing on survival and emergency measures like energy rationing, the closure of offices and factories, fuel price hikes and restrictions on the use of air conditioners and official cars.

Companies in Nicaragua fear a drop in consumption levels, businesses in Honduras are worried about rising costs for the factories in their "maquiladora" industries -- duty-free zones for the assembly of exports -- and companies in the Dominican Republic are anxious about a drop in the flow of tourists, who are turned off by power outages and the higher cost of airline tickets, which have been driven up by the rise in fuel prices.

In Cuba, whose thermoelectric plants run on extra heavy national crude, the government announced scheduled blackouts of up to six hours a day in Havana and other cities, restrictions on running air conditioners, and the temporary closure of 118 factories.

The price of gasoline rose 13 cents a gallon this week in Panama, to between 2.27 and 2.33 dollars, as costly as the most expensive gasoline in the United States.

Since 1980, 10 countries of Central America and the Caribbean have benefited from the San Jose Pact, through which Mexico and Venezuela sell them a total of 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, divided in equal parts.

The countries enjoy preferential payment facilities, as well as the possibility of recuperating up to 20 percent of what they spend on oil through the Pact in the form of long-term loans for development projects.

Algeria and Libya, two of Venezuela's partners in OPEC, have similar schemes through which they supply oil to their neighbours in Africa.

Three years ago, Venezuela also created the Caracas Accord to export 80,000 bpd of oil on preferential terms to Caribbean nations, mainly Cuba, which receives 53,000 bpd through that mechanism.

In South America, the high oil prices have had the heaviest impact on non-oil producing nations like Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.

The price of gasoline in Chile, which stands at 90 cents a litre, increased three percent over the past week, and local economists predict that the inflation rate will rise one percentage point -- from two to three percent this year -- if the price of oil remains at a high 40 to 50 dollars a barrel.

The retail price of the various kinds of gasoline sold in Uruguay averages over a dollar a litre. The government, which controls the price, is considering yet another hike, which would be the fourth so far this year.

Just as Argentina did, Paraguay is seeking to negotiate with Venezuela an agreement to import 20,000 bpd of gasoil, with payment facilities, in exchange for exports to Caracas of 300 tons a month of beef, as well as oil and soybeans.

South America's giant, Brazil, is riding high, since it produces 1.75 million bpd of oil, which nearly covers domestic demand of 1.85 million bpd.

Next year the country should achieve self-sufficiency, if the state-owned oil company Petrobras continues to find new deposits in its exclusive economic zone in the Atlantic Ocean.

Argentina, meanwhile, produces two times more hydrocarbons than it consumes.

For the countries of the Andean Community trade bloc -- Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela -- all of which have major deposits, the high prices present an opportunity for increased revenues as well as a chance to inject new life into oil and gas industry investment projects.

Colombian Energy Minister Luis Mejía urged investors to carry out prospection work on land as well as in the new concession areas off the country's coast in the Caribbean Sea, citing an "urgent need to revert" a problematic situation.

"We are consuming our reserves faster than we can replace them, and we cannot afford to lose our self-sufficiency," said Mejía. Colombia produces 520,000 bpd and consumes around 300,000. But it would like to extract up to 700,000 bpd to keep up export revenues.

Ecuador, which produces 510,000 bpd, raised its production goal for January to 527,000, and is negotiating projects that would add another 43,000 bpd.

The state oil monopoly Petroecuador will take in a total of around 4.0 billion dollars in oil revenues this year. The price of Ecuadorian crude is close to 30 dollars a barrel, 12 dollars higher than the price on which the budget was planned.

In Peru, transport unions are upset over probable increases in fuel prices, and are demanding that President Alejandro Toledo expedite sales of gas from the Camisea gas fields to bring down the cost of fuel.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is urging an alliance among South America's state-run oil companies that would involve agreements on exploration, production, marketing and supplies of oil and natural gas.

On Friday, Venezuela's oil monopoly PDVSA is opening an office in Buenos Aires to promote the creation of Petrosur, a projected alliance that will be favoured by Venezuela's admission to the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade bloc -- Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay -- as an associate member.

"But with respect to oil strategy, producer countries, starting with the members of OPEC, continue to put a priority on their relations with the consumer nations of the industrialised North and largely ignore the South," said Mieres.

Elie Habalián, a former Venezuelan representative to OPEC, remarked to IPS that "a country like Venezuela should weave oil alliances with its Latin American neighbours, and reserve a considerable part of output for the markets of Latin America."

"Any integration project in Latin America aimed at overcoming poverty and advancing development requires energy. And self-sufficiency is perfectly possible for the region," said Habalián.

According to statistics from British Petroleum, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean extracted 10.5 million bpd of crude last year and consumed 6.5 million, leaving a surplus of four million bpd for exports. The region also produced as much natural gas as it consumed: 155,000 million cubic metres.


 

 
   

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