Chinchilla Maintains Her Lead In The Costa
Rican Presidential Race Despite A Drop In
Support
The presidential race is on again after a
break during the Christmas and New Year's
holidays.
The Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (TSE)
banned all politicking during the holidays,
but come the first days of the new year and
the television, radio and newspapers
commercials have all reappeared.
And so have the polls.
The latest poll by Borge & Asociados shows
Laura Chinchilla of the Partido Liberación
Nacional (PLN) maitained her lead with a
36.7% approval rate, followed by Otto
Guevara of the Movimiento Libertario (ML)
with 16.2%
Although Chinchilla still has a commanding
lead over Guevara, her support has dropped
in the past months, when in November she
showed a 46.3%, while Guevara has climbed
from November's 14.4%.
Holding third place is Ottón Solís of the
Partido Acción Cuidadana (PAC) with an 8.5%
approval rate and Luis Fishman of the
Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC)
holding a measily 2.2%.
When asked which party they identified with,
the response was 40.5% for the PLN, 10.3%
for the PUSC, 8.7% for the ML, 5.8% for the
PAC, 0.4% for the PASE and 32.6% not sure or
did not respond.
For any candidate to win the February 7,
2010 elections, they need to gain 40% or
more of the vote, anything less an there
will be a run off elections between the top
two candidates.
The surprise this election is the popularity
of Otto Guevara, taking second spot away
from the Ottón Solís who missed winning
against Arias in 2006 by a narrow margin.
The Guevara strategy is play on the
insecurity faced by Costa Ricans and
corruption and waste in government, a
government by Arias who has chosen
Chinchilla to follow his legacy.
Chinchilla resigned as first vice-president
of Costa Rica in the Arias administration to
run for the presidency. And although Arias
cannot publicly show his support for any
candidate, he has been known to favour
Chinchilla, something that he was scolded by
the TSE in the days preceding the official
start of the election campaign.
As to Luis Fishman and the PUSC party, there
is no surprise there.
The PUSC has alternated the presidency in
Costa Rica with the PLN for decades.
However, marred by the corruption scandals
of two former presidents, Rafael Angel
Calderón and Miguel Angel Rodriguez, the
party has suffered greatly.
Fishman is the party's second and last
minute choice after Calderón was found
guilty of embezzlement by a court last
October and resigned his party's
presidential nomination.
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If the elections were held today |
