The way I read the article, only one of the three groups is calling for a referendum, and it evidently seeks various unspecified constitutional changes. Can the constitution can be amended via referenda? I seriously doubt that it can be, and as a matter of political philosophy, don’t think that any consititution that can be amended by majority vote (super majorities may be another story) is worth the paper its printed on. The whole point of a constitution is to is to lay out a foundation for the republic sturdier than the temporary sentiments of even a majority. It looks to me like this group is just another populist bunch who imagines it so thoroughly embodies the will of the people that it ought to be allowed to amend the constitution by mere popular vote. I doubt it can, and predict it would be sorry if it could, since that just opens the floogates for other populists bunches to amend the constitution to their liking.

Anyway, what we lack is information about any specific, legal referendum that any of these groups are proposing–and the referendum would have to be specific as well as legal. You can’t after all have a referendum on a cluster of issues; you would have to have multiple referenda. Perhaps, I don’t know, a referendum on the existence of RECOPE would be possible, and maybe even one capping taxes (although this would be hard to write, since there are a zillion different kinds of taxes). However, until we see a specific proposal for a legal referendum on the table, we really can’t predict its chances of passing.

So maybe one or another legal referendum would pass, but we aren’t to the point to having anything specific enough to offer an opinion. And that was partially my point. All we have now is an interesting expression of diffuse anger from a loose coaltion of small groups we don’t usually see demonstrating. They don’t however appear to have their act together very well, or to be as representative of the people as they wish.

It is refreshing to see the protests against the public sector unions and also to note that this was done in a park, not in the middle of a busy thoroughfare, as is common with ICE, Recope, the teachers union and UCR.

A group organized against RECOPE probably only draws members from the quarter or so of Ticos who drive. I doubt that the other three-quarters give a flip.

Worse, since many of those affluent enough to drive are members of public employees’ unions, and the demonstration was also against them, the anti-RECOPE bunch probably draws from an even smaller slice of the population.

A group organized against tax increases probably draws from an even smaller demographic, since except for the VAT and maybe a nuisance tax here and there, there aren’t any proposals in the hopper to increase the majority of Ticos’ taxes.

Meanwhile, if the photo is any guide, we’re dealing with an older demographic than is the norm. No doubt these folks are more active and influential on the average than others, but prevailing with a small base seems unlikely.

I’m not sure about the third group, but it’s only a third of a few hundred. Plus, although a good idea, changing the way legislators are elected isn’t likely an issue that excites the masses.

It’s all an interesting demonstration though, just strikes me as more of a man-bites-dog story than the start of a popular movement.