Unless I and a bunch of other people are wrong, the Central Bank has been systematically maintaining an overvalued colon for a long time. And unless I and this same bunch are still wrong, the Central Bank won’t be able to sustain this overvalued currency indefinitely. Sooner or later–and probably sooner rather than later–the value of the colon is going to drop fairly dramatically.

This is going to be a crisis anyway, since those receiving incomes in colones are going to have to deal with a decline in their spending power.

However, if the manipulated stability of the colon has persuaded Ticos to take out loans in dollars, the crisis is going to be worse, since it will force a rash of defaults on the dollar loans.

Maybe me and my bunch are wrong and the colon is properly valued. Let’s hope so. But it’s looking like the Central Bank has created an even worse future crisis than we knew.