Comments on: Paramilitary group claims to have formed in Costa Rica; Chinchilla says violence not the answer in Nicaragua conflict

By: Harry Mann

Harry Mann — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:36:00 +0000

What Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua have in commonality, which they do not share with Costa Rica, is a history of bloody civil conflict; mostly owing to economic disparity and festering social resentment. Ortega may resent the relative peace that Costa Rica has enjoyed, and the fact that their GDP isn’t at all consumed by the maintenance of a standing military. Another thing is that each succeeding generation in Central American countries, with the exception of Costa Rica, have a significant percentage of their population living in absolute poverty, which is what fuels the resentment that leads to civil conflict. So, it makes sense that Ortega would want to direct frustration and resentment at Costa Rica, which is a relatively wealthy and promising country. If Nicaragua needs something that Costa Rica has, then Nicaragua needs to offer an inducement and not insinuate threats or to engage in unilateral action. Costa Rica can contest whatever deal the Chinese want to make with Nicaragua if it infringes on Costa Rica. Obviously, Costa Rica will need to study any plans being proposed between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Perhaps, Ortega is exceedingly jealous of the deal he hopes to pen with the Chinese, and so he is engaging in the greatest defense, which is to go on the offensive.

By: Harry Mann

Harry Mann — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:25:00 +0000

Ortega seems to be adopting an attitude similar to Zionist in Israel, who believe that Palestinians are living on Israeli lands; and like Rwanda’s military government, which feels that it has the right to violate other nation’s territorial integrity, on behalf of Rwandans living abroad. He sees that the map of Eastern Europe has been redrawn and now his own feet are starting to itch.

By: Harry Mann

Harry Mann — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:21:00 +0000

Nicaragua’s leaders have experience with guerilla conflict and with counterinsurgency. If they need more military equipment, I would imagine they could get it on credit. As far as Nicaragua’s unemployment situation goes, that means that they can field a lot of recruits. And as far as China goes, they may have a larger, but poorer equipped military than the US, but they could lose 300 million citizens and still outnumber the US by 3 to 1; so they have fodder to throw into a ground war.

By: Harry Mann

Harry Mann — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:16:00 +0000

I think Ortega may be getting drunk on the idea that Nicaragua may be receiving aid from the Chinese for a new canal. And maybe he is starting to feel like an international player. But what he seems to be saying is that what is his, is his; and what belongs to Costa Rica is negotiable. He is behaving in an arrogant fashion. If someone were to start arguing that they have certain rights to your house, the thing to do is to slam a door in their face and then to express to your neighbors your opinion of the conflict, so that everyone has a good idea about what is going on.

By: Harry Mann

Harry Mann — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:10:00 +0000

Many years ago, someone was selling a mansion on an island in Lake Managua. The price was very attractive, but it occurred to me that once the war ended, someone would show up with an attorney, claiming that they held an interest in the property and, being a good egg, they were only interested in a percentage of the appreciated value of the property, which would likely amount to the full purchase price paid before the end of the civil conflict. Ortega is pretty much trying to pull that type of crap on Cosa Rica. At any rate, the boundaries were set 100 years ago. But, the thing of it is, paramilitary groups in Costa Rica, as well as Ortega, may amplify national chauvinism, which could lead towards grass roots conflicts, which the military and police may have to resolves, which could lead to armed skirmishes.

By: Ken Morris

Ken Morris — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 04:43:00 +0000

You may be a military strategist; I am not. However, I think I know that the number of troops is largely irrelevant. More relevant is the training and arms. China for example has way more troops than the US, but spends far less and equips the troops more poorly. Thus, while I suppose anything is theoretically possible, I can’t imagine that Nicaragua’s 15,000 troops would automatically vanquish CR’s 12,000 cops in border warfare. The relevant combat question would seem to be how well-trained and equipped the different fighting forces are. We know that CR still trains some of its so-called police at the School of the Americas, while Nicaragua does not, but I don’t know how comparatively well armed the two fighting forces are. My guess would be that they are armed differently, but that CR has the superior arms. Do you know?

Of course, the fair question is whether CR’s police is a military under a more innocuous name (as Nicaragua contends) or isn’t. I don’t know the answer to this question either. It would seem to turn on training and arms.

I do know, or think I know, that in Nicaragua, where the official unemployment rate hovers in the 40-something percent, the military is often considered a good, secure career, so lots of kids are attracted to it. At least this was what a young soldier in León told me. I doubt though that this means they are well-equipped. When labor is cheap, it’s less expensive to pay the soldiers than it is to equip them well.

And I’m glad you added “for that part of the world.” Divided by the total population, the US has three times more soldiers per capita than does Nicaragua, yet it has super sophisticated armaments. Is a much less technologically sophisticated country with a third the troops “heavily armed”?

But war talk is crazy when all Chinchilla needs to do is dial the telephone and set up a meeting. I guess if she wants to bring a pistol with her that will be her choice, but something tells me that not one of Nicaragua’s 15,000 troops will fire a shot–and if one tried his old rusty gun would probably jam.

By: Frank Castle

Frank Castle — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 02:57:00 +0000

Estimated “Military” of 15,000 troops in Nica vs. no military in CR. Oh, well, they have police in CR but they aren’t military. I would say the Nica is “heavily armed’ for that part of the world.

By: Ken Morris

Ken Morris — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 00:51:00 +0000

Convenient. You twice call Nicaragua a “thug,” say its “heavily armed” (implying I guess that CR isn’t), and refer to the readers of the Miami Herald and the other forums in which Chinchilla has whined as “the authorities.” Gee, when you introduce this kind of hyperbolic spin, it makes it sound like CR is a virgin schoolgirl encountering Dracula. I am real, and I take telenovelas for the melodramatic fictions they are.

By: nipperthecat

nipperthecat — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 23:37:00 +0000

I do not negotiate with thug neighbors… I call the police. I do not negotiate under threat. Why do you feel CR has an obligation to negotiate with a thug neighbor. If you knew I was serious and was heavily armed, would you really give me some of your house or would you go to the authorities? I am guessing the latter… Get real Ken.

By: Ken Morris

Ken Morris — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 22:04:00 +0000

Glad you posted this example, because it’s exactly the example that I have often used to mull this matter.

If you are a neighbor messing with my property, isn’t the first thing I do is talk to you about it? You know, “Hey, this is my property! WTF ya doing?”

My first step is NOT to travel the neighborhood knocking on doors badmouthing you and filing complaints against you in any court that might possibly have jurisdiction. My first step is to talk to you, for crying out loud, and this is the step CR has not taken.

Plus, if we talk–Guess what?–you might actually have something to say that interests me. You might e.g., “Look, there’s gold buried on the border between our properties, and if we dig it up we’ll both be rich.” Gosh, I might like that idea.