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Wednesday 12
November 2003
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U.S.
Relieved at Guatemala Election Result
Jim
Lobe
WASHINGTON, (IPS) - Sunday's
elections results in Guatemala -- and
particularly the crushing defeat
voters delivered to former President
Efrain Rios Montt -- were greeted with
palpable relief here by both the
administration of President George W.
Bush and non-governmental human rights
groups.
At the same time, few analysts here
are under any illusion that the two
finalists, Oscar Berger and Alvaro
Colom, represent much hope for a
radical improvement, either in the
lives of most Guatemalans or in
bilateral relations, which are
bedevilled by a number of issues.
Berger and Colom, who will fight it
out for the presidency in the run-off
election Dec. 28, are both considered
products of the mainly European elite
-- although Colom is also steeped in
Mayan traditions -- that has dominated
the country for decades and opposed
any far-reaching reforms that might
threaten their hold on power.
'' Nobody should have any illusions
that either of the other candidates is
a paragon of commitment to human
rights and democracy above all else,''
says Geoffrey Thale, a Central America
specialist at the Washington Office on
Latin America (WOLA), a
rights-oriented think tank here.
According to the latest poll results,
Berger received nearly 40 percent of
the vote, Colom 28 percent, and Rios
Montt less than 17 percent, with more
than 60 percent of eligible voters
casting ballots.
Some analysts said the relatively high
turnout in what was Guatemala's second
presidential election since 1996 was
spurred in part by fear that Rios
Montt would win.
Official Washington's distaste for the
retired general, who took a distant
third place in polling, was reiterated
Monday when State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher referred to him as
''former dictator Rios Montt'' in
reviewing the election results.
Last summer, after Rios Montt's
candidacy was approved by the
Guatemalan Supreme Court, Boucher had
warned that, ''in light of Mr. Rios
Montt's background, it would be
difficult to have the kind of
relationship that we would prefer''.
The statement marked the first time in
more than a decade that Washington had
publicly warned a Central American
electorate against a right-wing
presidential candidate.
In contrast, on Monday Boucher
stressed that the two leading
candidates were both acceptable. ''We
look forward to working with either
Mr. Berger or Mr. Colom to strengthen
U.S.-Guatemala relations''.
For Washington, Rios Montt's main
drawback was his 18-month tenure as
president after he seized power in a
military coup d'etat against another
general, Romeo Lucas Garcia, in 1982.
During his presidency, a
counter-insurgency campaign against
leftist guerrillas, which a United
Nations commission later labelled
''genocidal'', reached its height.
While death squads worked freely in
the major cities, several hundred
Mayan villages were razed to the
ground and thousands of people
massacred by both the army and
army-directed self-defence units,
especially in the country's central
highlands.
At least 200,000 people were killed in
a 30-year civil war that ended with
the 1996 peace accords.
Despite that record, Rios Montt was
embraced by former president Ronald
Reagan who, in a memorable turn of
phrase, assailed human-rights
criticisms of his rule as a ''bum
rap'' when he visited Guatemala in
1982.
In more recent years, Rios Montt, who
was disqualified by the Supreme Court
twice in the 1990s from running for
president due to his role in the 1982
military coup, led the Guatemalan
Republican Front (FRG).
In that capacity, he served most
recently as president of the Congress,
and was widely seen as the power
behind retiring President Alfonso
Portillo.
In addition to his human-rights
record, Washington was also concerned
about Rios Montt's ties to
drug-trafficking and organised crime,
whose influence, according to some
U.S. officials, is unprecedented in
Central America, at least since the
rule of Panama's Manuel Antonio
Noriega, who has been serving time in
federal prison since the U.S. invasion
of his country in 1989.
The combination of those ties and his
past rights record made Rios Montt
particularly alarming to the Bush
administration, one of whose major
priorities is to clear a Central
American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA)
through Congress.
Key lawmakers here expressed strong
displeasure with the Bush
administration's recent decision to
''certify'' that Guatemala was
co-operating with Washington in its
anti-drug efforts despite the lack of
evidence that Portillo's government
had improved its performance since
last January, when the administration
''de-certified'' it.
''The Bush administration has made its
regional priorities quite clear,''
according to Larry Birns, director of
the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA).
"CAFTA, which must have
Guatemala's membership to be
effective, is at the top of the
administration's policy initiatives in
the area.''
That was one major reason, Birns said,
that Rios Montt was seen as a threat
to the administration's goals.
Still, most analysts here believe that
the FRG, which won more than 40
percent of the seats in the new
Congress and thus will remain a force
to be reckoned with, is only the most
complicit with the country's criminal
element.
The consensus view is that trafficking
and organised crime have so penetrated
Guatemala's power elite that all major
parties and coalitions, including
Berger's and Colom's, have been
infiltrated.
''Both parties have clear links to
both drug trafficking and organised
crime,'' Thale told IPS. ''Ousting the
FRG from power may help, but it
certainly won't solve those two things
in any decisive way.''
The fact that whoever wins the
election will have fewer seats in
Congress than the FRG means strong
action against criminal interests --
most of which are run by retired and,
in some cases, active-duty, military
officers -- will be very difficult.
Overall, the administration probably
prefers Berger, according to analysts
here, if only because he is the
candidate of the traditional business
community and favours free trade and
neo-liberal solutions to economic
problems.
In addition, his vice-presidential
candidate, Eduardo Stein, has long
been outspoken against human rights
abuses and drug trafficking.
Human rights groups here say the new
administration's priority should be
creating an U.N.-backed Commission of
Investigation into Illegal Groups and
Clandestine Security Apparatuses to
which the Portillo government recently
committed itself.
The United Nations has suggested that
such a body be empowered to prosecute,
as well as investigate, groups that
are believed to be responsible for a
rising tide of violence against human
rights activists, as well as for other
criminal activities, including
kidnapping, drug trafficking and car
theft.
The Portillo government has not yet
reacted to the U.N. suggestion, and,
given the PRD's large representation
in the new Congress, a new
administration led either by Berger or
Colom might find it very difficult to
get a commission endowed with such
power.
''Both candidates should now publicly
endorse the U.N. proposal and commit
to implementing it early on in their
presidency,'' said Adriana Beltran,
WOLA's programme officer for
Guatemala.
''The proposed commission could offer
Guatemala its last, best opportunity
to restore the rule of law,'' said
Jose Miguel Vivanco, Americas director
for Human Rights Watch, in a
statement.
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