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REPORTS: GUATEMALA |
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Wednesday 26
November
2003
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Guatemala: A New Beginning?
The future of Guatemala depends on the
race between Oscar Berger and Alvaro
Colom
Simon Helweg-Larsen
The elimination of Rios Montt in the
first round vote could open a less
violent and less militaristic phase in
Guatemala.
After a tense and violent campaign
period, Guatemalans breathed a sigh of
relief after the Nov. 9 elections. Gen.
Efraín Ríos Montt, dictator during the
worst moments of the armed conflict and
presidential candidate for the
Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG), came
in a distant third place, with 19.21
percent of the vote.
The FRG campaign to elect Ríos Montt was
anything but clean, marked by widespread
vote-buying, intimidation, violent
attacks and presumed responsibility in
more than 30 political assassinations.
Still, Ríos Montt was rejected by the
vast majority of Guatemalans, opening a
new phase in the country’s history.
When the government changes on Jan. 14,
2004, Ríos Montt will find himself
without an official post for the first
time since before the signing of the
1996 peace accords. As such, he will
also lose his diplomatic immunity, a
moment which has long been awaited in
Guatemala and around the world. Accused
of war crimes and genocide committed
during his 17-month rule in 1982-1983,
lawsuits currently await Ríos Montt in
Guatemala and Spain.
With the threat of Ríos Montt and the
return of the FRG subdued, Guatemala’s
political attention has now turned to
the two front-runners who will face each
other in a second round on Dec. 28:
Oscar Berger and Alvaro Colom. The
dispute between the two contenders will
determine Guatemala’s direction over the
next four years.
Berger of the right-wing Grand National
Alliance (GANA), who obtained 34.48
percent of the vote, represents the main
faction of Guatemala’s traditional
economic elite. The last four years have
been marked by extreme animosity towards
the economic elite as the FRG attempted
to break monopolies and promote
competition by investing monies acquired
by the military and their associates
during military rule of the country and
the profits of numerous illicit
activities. Should Berger be elected on
Dec. 28, the oligarchy will have its
best chance at a full recovery.
Opposing Berger is Colom of the National
Unity for Hope (UNE), who obtained 26.48
percent of the first-round votes.
Colom’s interests appear to lie more
with the peaceful development of
Guatemala than with any particular
interest group. A former president of
the government-sponsored National Peace
Fund (Fonapaz) and the 1999 presidential
candidate for the left-wing Alliance for
a New Nation (ANN), Colom has pledged to
restore the damaged progress of the
peace accords. Still, significant reform
would be difficult for Colom, whose
party is filled with representatives of
the economic elite, the military and
former members of the FRG.
Whether Berger or Colom wins the final
vote, the next president will focus
largely on correcting the errors
committed over the last four years by
Alfonso Portillo, who assumed power in
2000 (LP, June 19, 2000). A renewed
commitment to the peace accords, halting
trends of re-militarization, the
cessation of state violence and
repairing the damaged business sector
will be among the top priorities of the
next administration.
Although Berger and the GANA would
vocally support a commitment to
implementation of the peace accords,
little would likely be accomplished. The
same economic elite as that represented
by Berger oversaw the negotiation and
initial implementation of the Guatemalan
peace accords. Other than a lasting
cease-fire, most Guatemalans have
experienced few benefits. Reforms that
would begin to restructure inequality
were fiercely, and successfully, opposed
by the oligarchy.
Despite his good intentions, Colom would
have little luck in advancing peace when
faced with the strong traditional powers
of the military and the oligarchy.
Still, his presidency could represent
the first step in the establishment of
progressive development following the
peace accords.
Both parties would surely commit to
relative demilitarization and the
disintegration of the apparatus of state
terror. Under the FRG, the armed forces
enjoyed renewed financial and political
priority, which Colom or Berger would at
least attempt to halt, if not reverse.
The prosecution of members of the armed
forces accused of war crimes during the
armed conflict is also possible, with
the Myrna Mack and Bishop Gerardi cases
taking precedence.
Additionally, a United Nations-sponsored
Commission to Investigate Illegal
Organizations and Clandestine Security
Bodies (CICIACS) is in the process of
being established to investigate links
between the FRG and
politically-motivated death squads
between 1999 and 2003. The CICIACS would
be supported by either Berger or Colom,
as would measures to combat gang
activity and drug trafficking. The
United States has accused the FRG of
being linked to drug trafficking, arms
trafficking and organized crime.
Although Berger would best represent the
private sector, both candidates would
assist in repairing FRG damage to the
business classes and the traditional
economic structure. Guatemala also finds
itself in a poor state economically,
with high unemployment exacerbated by
the disastrous coffee crisis. Poverty
affects 56 percent of Guatemala’s 12.3
million people.
Economic desperation contributed to the
fact that 2003 has been the most violent
year since the end of the armed
conflict.
Even with the pressing issues to be
decided on Dec. 28, voter turn out is
likely to be low. Absenteeism was high
in the first round of the elections,
reaching 58.92 percent. Although this
rate is not alarming in comparison with
previous Guatemalan elections, a higher
level of participation had been expected
due to the emotional return of Ríos
Montt.
In a second round, with Ríos Montt
already eliminated and the two remaining
candidates seemingly similar in the eyes
of most Guatemalans, absenteeism is
likely to rise.
Still, the campaign period leading up to
the second round will most likely
experience an atmosphere of calm,
without participation of the FRG, which
was accused of the vast majority of
cases of political violence in the past
few months.
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