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VENEZUELA:
Ten More Years, If He Can
Woo a Divided Country
By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS (IPS) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez won Sunday's
referendum with 54 percent of the vote, which will allow him to
stand for reelection indefinitely. But he will have to exercise
leadership over a country that is stubbornly split in two.
Six million electors voted in favour of the constitutional amendment
to remove term limits from the reelection of elected officials,
while five million voted 'No'.
In his speech praising the result, the president left no one in
doubt about his vision for the future: "Those who voted 'Yes' voted
for Chávez and socialism," he said, and he announced that "this
victory is the start of a new cycle of the Bolivarian Revolution, up
to 2019."
"We must review everything we have done and begin to rectify, adjust
and strengthen our economic and social affairs. The social
'missions' (health, education and nutrition programmes) must be
strengthened. Then we will be better placed, after 2010, to continue
opening new horizons," Chávez said.
In the medium term, "We shall continue on the road to socialism,
because the only way we can possibly have a country is to have a
socialist country," he said.
Chávez "got both the things he wanted: the opportunity to be a
presidential candidate in 2012, and to recover his invincible, or
very strong, image, after suffering two electoral reverses," analyst
Luis León, head of the polling firm Datanálisis, told IPS.
When Chávez first proposed a constitutional reform that included
allowing reelection without term limits in 2007, the initiative
failed by 51 to 49 percent of the ballots. In the regional elections
held in November 2008, governing party candidates won the majority
of posts, but the opposition made advances in key constituencies.
"We are for 'El Comandante' Chávez. We support him because he is the
only one who has truly cared about poor people in this country, and
as long as he continues in that vein, we want him to stay in
office," a retired teacher, Ana de Cevallos, told IPS Sunday, amid
the bustle of the referendum in the central Caracas district of La
Candelaria.
In contrast, in the view of Raúl Rondón, a salesperson in the same
district, "increasingly, there are fewer people who still want
Chávez. They are becoming disenchanted with him, and even if he
wins, you can see that many people are sick and tired of fighting.
What they want is solutions" to their problems, he said.
José Virtuoso, a Jesuit priest who works in shanty towns in the
north of Caracas and belongs to the Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye)
observatory, said that "the results (of the referendum) show that
the country is divided into two antagonistic halves, and
unfortunately they are not hearing a message of inclusiveness."
"The president's speech celebrating his victory did not call for
reconciliation, nor for the inclusion of that other half of the
country," he complained.
Looking ahead to the long term, Chávez welcomed the prospect of
government continuity, "because brief periods of government were
imposed on us as an imperialist strategy, to prevent us from
developing a national project that is truly our own."
In the immediate future, the government "is going to be more
populist, more dependent than it has previously been on the
popularity of its leader, who is certainly unique. He has shown that
he is irreplaceable," said León.
"Loss of popularity has the same effect on Chávez as kryptonite has
on Superman. His position rests on his popularity, his connection
with the people, and that could be weakened by the measures that are
taken" in the context of the global crisis, León said.
The advantages of holding the referendum before the economic crisis
hits Venezuelans with full force, and of using the electoral
campaign machinery that was set in motion for last November's
regional elections, prompted the president and branches of
government to hold the ballot as soon as possible, after a brief
four-week campaign.
So far, Chávez has ruled out any reduction in social spending or any
plans to devalue the Venezuelan currency. Raising the price of
petrol, which is very cheap in this oil-producing country, has been
a taboo subject during his 10 years in power.
But according to the economists' calculations, oil revenues in 2009
will be only one-third of the income received in 2008, creating an
inevitable budget shortfall in a few months' time and forcing
adjustments to be made.
The government has suspended its nationalisation programme over the
past few months, but it might renew the policy, targeting private
finance, health and food companies, as an attempt to buffer the
impact of the crisis on the poor.
As soon as the referendum results came out, the opposition redoubled
rallying calls to its supporters to unite, and to keep fighting for
the long haul. "This is not a 100-metre flat race, but a marathon,
and we will win it," said student leader David Smolansky.
Tens of thousands of university students who marched in the streets
and volunteered as observers at polling stations were the vanguard
of the 'No' vote campaign, which was far less elaborate than the
pro-amendment campaign that had evident access to government
resources.
Omar Barboza, the vice president of the main opposition party Un
Nuevo Tiempo (A New Era, UNT), highlighted the fact that out of the
15 elections or referendums that have been held over the last 10
years, this was the first time the opposition garnered more than
five million votes, whereas Chávez, reelected in 2006 with nearly 64
percent of the vote, has seen his support dwindle to 54 percent in
this referendum.
"We achieved this result in adverse circumstances, because we were
not fighting against an amendment proposal, but against the state.
We commit ourselves to fighting until democratic values are restored
in this country," said Barboza. "We have a different project to the
totalitarian programme of President Chávez," he added.
The National Electoral Council, after scrutinising 94.2 percent of
the returns, reported that there were 6,003,594 votes in favour of
the amendment (54.36 percent), and 5,040,082 (45.63 percent)
against. A total of 199,041 ballots were annulled, and the
abstention rate was 32.95 percent, out of an electoral roll of
nearly 16.8 million people.
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