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VENEZUELA:
Chávez - A Referendum of His Very
Own
By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS. (IPS) - After a decade in office, Venezuelan President Hugo
Chávez goes to the country on Sunday in another attempt to change
the constitution so that he can stand for reelection "for at least
another 10 years".
If he wins, as predicted by a number of opinion polls and the
rolling out of an electoral machine vastly superior to that of his
opponents, his left-leaning government will be strengthened. If he
fails, a possibility that is not ruled out by analysts, he will have
to trim his sails and start looking for a political heir for the
2012 elections.
Some 16.8 million Venezuelans are eligible to vote for or against
the proposed amendment to the 1999 constitution, instigated by
Chávez himself, which eliminates restrictions on the number of terms
candidates may serve, so that the president, lawmakers, governors
and mayors may run for office as many times as they like.
"I am ready to govern with you for these four years (the remainder
of his current six-year term) and the next six, until 2019," Chávez
said on Thursday before tens of thousands of his supporters in
Caracas, at the final rally of his political campaign.
"On Sunday my political fate will be decided, and I will stand to
attention like a soldier waiting for your orders," he said.
Determined to reinvent his "Bolivarian Revolution" in a socialist
key, in 2007 Chávez proposed a wide-ranging reform of the
constitution that included permission for presidential reelection.
He seized the opportunity presented by his victory in the December
2006 elections, when 7.3 million voters elected him for another
term, compared with only 4.3 million ballots for his main rival,
Manuel Rosales. But the 2007 constitutional reform failed.
The long campaign leading up to that referendum, when Chávez's
attention was taken up by international issues, and above all the
closing of the RCTV television channel, which was often critical of
the government, provoked a vigorous student protest movement and the
abstention of three million of his supporters.
The constitutional reform package was rejected by 51 percent of
voters.
As soon as the results were known in the November 2008 regional
elections, in which his supporters won 53 percent of the vote,
Chávez took a short cut via the country's parliament, where 155 out
of the total of 167 lawmakers support him, and this time proposed an
amendment only of the section on reelection of elected officials.
After two days of debate, parliament approved the proposal and the
National Electoral Council, an autonomous branch of government with
a majority of government supporters, set the referendum date for
Feb. 15, on the same day it received the text. This left only four
weeks for campaigning.
"In late 2008, those opposed to indefinite reelection had a lead of
20 percentage points over those in favour, but according to our
measurements that lead has dropped to only five points," Oscar
Schémel, head of the Hinterlaces polling firm, told IPS. "That small
advantage appeared to firm up during February, so the No vote is in
with a chance," he added.
Other pollsters like Datanálisis, reliked on by the opposition,
reported a majority of voter intentions against the amendment in
December, but its most recent survey in late January indicated that
Yes votes were in the lead by 52 to 48 percent of interviewees.
"The state apparatus was in full swing. President Chávez made 46
nationwide broadcasts on radio and television in the space of two
months, and his party faithful went canvassing house to house,
sowing dread among the Venezuelan population by saying that if
Chávez loses, chaos will reign," Luis Vicente León, the head of
Datanálisis, told IPS.
In contrast to León's account, the head of the governing United
Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Vanessa Davies, told
journalists that party members have indeed been going "house to
house, but have received enthusiastic support." "Many people say,
'we have this or that problem, but you can count on us to vote
Yes,'" she said.
Chávez and his inner circle mounted their campaign like a
blitzkrieg, wasting no time and leaving the opposition far behind in
matters of organisation, fund-raising and strategy.
The timing of the snap referendum gave the opposition no opportunity
to capitalise on mistakes or unpopular measures the government may
have to impose to survive the global economic crisis. The country
has barely been given the time or the opportunity to debate the
reelection proposal.
State entities like the giant Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA)
consortium, the Caracas Metro (underground and bus system), the tax
office and the electricity company undertook propaganda campaigns in
support of the Yes vote. The electoral authority rebuked them only
when the end of the campaign was hours away.
Foreign correspondents could see how even in remote villages in the
east or west of the country, posters, pennants, stickers and even
the T-shirts worn by street cleaners displayed updated slogans for
the Yes vote, indicating that the pro-Chávez electoral message was
spread promptly and swiftly by highly efficient official machinery.
The opposition resorted to press advertisements, since most
newspapers are critical of the government, and to a television news
channel and their modest party machines. In the vanguard were
thousands of students from some 20 universities who took to the
streets to demonstrate and hand out leaflets, with a passion
comparable to that of 2007.
"No es no," (No means No, referring to the previous rejection of
constitutional reform in 2007) on the one hand, and "Uh, ah, Chávez
sí va" or its variant, "Uh, ah, la enmienda sí va" (roughly, Oh,
yes, Chávez will go ahead, or Oh, yes, the amendment will pass) on
the other, have been the main competing slogans in this hasty
campaign.
Astonishingly, the 73-word question that will appear on the screens
of the computerised voting machines does not even mention the word
"reelection".
"Do you approve the amendment… of the Constitution of the Republic…
to increase the political rights of the people by allowing any
citizen holding elected office to be nominated as candidate for the
same office, … pending his or her possible election exclusively by
popular vote?" it asks.
The amendment covers any official elected by the people, but there
is no doubt in anyone's mind that its central purpose is to fulfil
Chávez's own aspirations. "Whatever 'El Comandante' says, we will
support him. We trust him, although we dislike some of the people
surrounding him," Manuel Estévez, an employee at a hardware store in
the centre of Caracas, told IPS.
"Chávez is indispensable to the interests of the people at this
historic moment in our country. The people identify him with the
whole political project that is at stake in this referendum. It is
the transformation of society, and it depends on one man," said
Aristóbulo Istúriz, one of the vice presidents of the PSUV.
On the opposition side, former socialist leader Teodoro Petkoff said
that "it is not good for democracy that presidents should be able to
perpetuate themselves in power."
"The exercise of leadership, especially in countries with fragile
democracies and a tradition of "caudillismo" (charismatic strongmen
in power), gives them obvious electoral advantages that, as
(Venezuelan Liberator) Simón Bolívar said, could usher in usurpation
and tyranny," he said.
Sociologist Edgardo Lander, a professor at the Central University
and for years a Chávez sympathiser, said that the president has
"managed to give a voice and a direction to the discontent that
existed in Venezuela, but in order to build a more democratic
society we now have to go beyond that leadership."
"A process of (social) transformation cannot depend on one person
alone. That is a sign of weakness, not strength," Lander said.
Furthermore, in his view, "at bottom what is at stake is the idea
Chávez and his entourage have that without him as their candidate
they might lose the elections (in 2012), while the opposition is
concerned that the pro-Chávez movement, with the president as its
candidate, might win those elections. That is the problem. The rest
is secondary."
An exultant Chávez said Thursday that he would win "by a knockout,"
and called on his followers to celebrate Sunday night in front of
the seat of government.
For the opposition, Leopoldo López, the popular former mayor of a
Caracas municipality, whom analysts say has presidential
aspirations, said that "the result will be very close and the No
vote has a chance, if we overcome abstentionism."
Finally, on the disparities between polls - two of the most
reputable predict victory for the Yes vote, and others say the Nos
are ahead, although the differences are within the margin of
statistical error - political scientist John Magdaleno told IPS,
"although I have never supported the notion of a 'hidden vote,'
perhaps for the first time it will come out and surprise us all."
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