Wednesday 19 November 2008, San José, Costa
Rica
EL SALVADOR:
FMLN Starts Out Ahead
By Raúl Gutiérrez
SAN SALVADOR (IPS)
- As the campaign gets
underway, the left-wing
Farabundo Marti National
Liberation Front (FMLN)
is the favourite in the
polls for El Salvador’s
March 2009 presidential
elections.
A win for the FMLN would
be historical in a
country traditionally
governed by the right,
analysts point out.
Since this Central
American country
declared its
independence from Spain
in the 19th century, it
has been governed by
conservatives, economic
liberals or military
dictatorships (from 1931
to 1979).
And since 1989, it has
been ruled by the
right-wing Nationalist
Republican Alliance
(ARENA).
Christian Democratic and
Social Democratic
parties won the
presidential elections
in 1972 and 1977, but
the military resorted to
fraud and repression of
opponents, forcing many
of them into exile.
In 1980, civil war broke
out, with the leftist
FMLN guerrillas fighting
government forces. The
insurgent group became a
political party after a
peace agreement was
signed in 1992.
Today, the party’s
presidential candidate,
Mauricio Funes, is
leading the polls by a
margin of two to 15
percentage points over
his main rival, ARENA’s
Rodrigo Ávila.
Although the campaign
did not actually begin
until Friday, Nov. 14,
political scientist
Napoleón Campos told IPS
that the Supreme
Electoral Court has
allowed the parties to
informally campaign for
nearly two years.
Under the country’s
electoral laws,
campaigns can only last
four months in the case
of presidential
elections, two months in
the case of
parliamentary elections,
and one month for
municipal elections.
For the first time ever,
the FMLN -- the main
opposition party --
stands a real chance of
winning the presidency,
after four unsuccessful
attempts since 1994.
But despite the natural
wear and tear suffered
by ARENA after nearly 20
years in power, and the
impact of the current
international financial
crisis, Campos said the
scenario could change
from here to Mar. 15.
Local media outlets have
estimated that the
country’s six political
parties will spend a
combined total of 30
million dollars in the
campaign. The parties
taking part in the
elections, besides the
FMLN and ARENA, are the
Christian Democratic
Party, the National
Reconciliation Party,
Democratic Change and
the Democratic
Revolutionary Front.
The FMLN is also ahead
in the polls for the
Jan. 18 legislative and
municipal elections.
Nelson Zárate, director
of the Centre for
Research on Public
Opinion (CIOP), whose
latest poll found that
Funes is 15 points ahead
of Ávila, told IPS that
the leftist candidate
has generated "a wave of
credibility that is
drawing people to vote
for the FMLN" at all
levels, not only in the
presidential elections.
Funes, a popular
journalist and talk-show
host, did not even
actually belong to the
FMLN until August, which
in the view of analysts
puts him in a position
to draw voters who would
not have cast their
ballots for one of the
party’s long-time
leaders.
The FMLN kicked off its
campaign with a caravan
of hundreds of cars that
set out from San
Salvador on Saturday
with Funes at its head.
They were joined by more
and more cars until
thousands were driving
from city to city around
the country.
The aim of the caravan,
said the head of the
party, Medardo González,
is to awaken people’s
"confidence" in the
change that the FMLN
proposes to bring to the
country.
ARENA’s campaign opened,
as always, in the
western city of Izalco,
which is a symbol for
the governing party. In
1932, an estimated
30,000 indigenous
peasants were
slaughtered there by the
anti-communist
dictatorship of General
Maximiliano Hernández
Martínez, who took power
in a January 1931
military coup.
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