Thursday 06 November 2008, San José, Costa
Rica
CUBA-US:
Obama Awakens
Hopes for a Thaw
By Patricia Grogg
Havana (IPS) -
U.S. President-elect
Barack Obama has a
positive image among
most Cubans, who are
hopeful regarding his
promises of loosening
some restrictions
towards the island,
although the
government-controlled
media here have
refrained from
commenting on the future
of relations between the
two countries.
The Democratic candidate
who will become the
first African-American
president of the United
States on Jan. 20 may
also become the first to
sit down to talks with
the Cuban government
after nearly half a
century of conflict.
During his campaign,
Obama pledged to lift
travel restrictions so
that Cuban-Americans can
visit their families in
Cuba, and to eliminate
caps on the remittances
they can send back to
their families --
measures that were
adopted in 2004 by the
Republican
administration of
President George W.
Bush.
Obama also said he was
willing to pursue direct
diplomacy with the Cuban
government, without
preconditions.
"I hope that with him as
president, relations
will be eased, and there
won’t be so many
restrictions," a
62-year-old woman told
IPS, after complaining
that in November 2007
she was refused a visa
for the second time, on
the argument that she
posed a risk to U.S.
interests.
"My parents and siblings
have lived over there
for years, and I never
had any problem visiting
them before. But for the
Bush administration I’m
a danger, and I can’t
see my mother, who is 92
years old and sick and
wants to see me," she
added, asking not to be
identified "to avoid
further complicating
matters."
A shift in Washington’s
policy towards Cuba
would have several
advantages for Cuban
society, in the view of
Reverend Raymundo García,
director of the
Christian Centre for
Reflection and Dialogue,
one of the few civil
society organizations in
Cuba that regularly
analyses human rights
questions.
Obama’s offer "to be
open to dialogue with
Cuba…is a watershed for
his country and his
government, because it
would require a
dismantling of what has
been called an embargo
based on democracy and
human rights questions,"
he said.
The protestant minister
said he had no doubts
that a new attitude on
the part of Washington
would immediately
contribute to bringing
about closer ties
between families divided
between the two
countries and would help
the Cuban economy as a
result of increased
travel and remittances.
"God willing, this will
be the start of an end
to the mutual
recriminations,
accusations and
spitefulness that have
caused so much harm," he
said.
Academics who spoke to
IPS, however, said they
do not foresee
significant short-term
economic benefits,
especially because of
the financial crisis in
the United States, which
has already translated
into a drop in
remittances towards the
rest of the Americas, as
well as a reduction in
travel due to soaring
air ticket prices.
"Without a doubt, the
situation could improve
in the next few months,
and that would be a
positive signal, but for
now, Obama’s priority is
to improve the U.S.
economy and rebuild the
nation’s prestige,"
economy Professor Omar
Everleny Pérez
Villanueva told IPS.
He also said, however,
that he has no doubts
that if the U.S.
Congress passes laws
favourable to Cuba,
Obama will not veto
them. "He wouldn’t have
any reason to do so, and
besides, the hard-line
Cuban-Americans are
Republicans, to whom
Obama is not beholden."
Luis René Fernández,
assistant director of
the University of
Havana’s Centre for the
Study of the Hemisphere
and the United States (CEHSEU),
agrees that Cuba is not
"a priority" on
Washington’s agenda, but
said a new stance
towards this Caribbean
island nation could "be
important for the
world’s perception of
the United States."
"That is, small changes
in the policy towards
Cuba, a degree of
flexibility, an openness
to diplomatic
negotiations, however
limited, could help
improve something
crucial to U.S.
politics: the country’s
image, which has
severely deteriorated
after eight years of an
administration that has
been deeply unpopular at
a global level," said
Fernández.
In the analyst’s view, a
more pragmatic Cuba
policy could provide
"collateral benefits" to
the government of Obama,
who will take office
only a few weeks after
the Cuban government
headed by Raúl Castro
celebrates the 50th
anniversary of the Cuban
revolution, on Jan. 1,
2009.
Up to now, only former
president Fidel Castro
has publicly referred to
the two candidates who
faced off in Tuesday’s
elections. In his most
recent column, he
described Obama as "more
intelligent, educated
and level-headed" than
his Republican rival,
John McCain.
"Obama came to these
elections with the
backing of the dominant
class in the United
States," Ramón
Sánchez-Parodi Montoto,
international relations
analyst and former head
of the Cuban Interests
Section in the United
States wrote in an
article Wednesday in
Granma, the official
newspaper of Cuba’s
governing Communist
Party.
Opinions varied among
dissident groups in
Cuba. "I don’t believe
in proposals for
dialogue with this
government," Berta Soler,
a member of the Ladies
in White, a group of
wives and daughters of
imprisoned dissidents
who were accused of
"conspiring" with the
United States, told IPS.
By contrast, Eloy
Gutiérrez Menoyo said
that for Cuba, the
change that lies ahead
in Washington could open
up a new horizon of
"infinite" possibilities
and "would also be an
opportunity for
enriching dialogue with
Latin America." Menoyo
is the head of Cuban
Change, which he
describes as "an
independent opposition
organization."
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