Tuesday 16 September
2008, San José, Costa
Rica
POLITICS:
Election Could Herald
Changes in U.S. Cuba
Policy
By Alison Raphael
WASHINGTON (IPS) - Cuba
policy spokesmen for the
two presidential
candidates jousted and
sniped at a colloquium
in Washington last
Friday, offering a
choice between further
hardening of current
policies and some hope
for a new vision for
U.S. Cuba policy.
Dan Restrepo,
representing the Barack
Obama campaign, and
Adolfo Franco, speaking
for John McCain,
addressed a crowd of
long-time Cuba hands at
the Inter-American
Dialogue (IAD), a
Washington-based think
tank focusing on Latin
America and U.S.-Latin
relations.
"The new U.S. president
will be the first in
five decades not to face
Fidel Castro," noted
moderator Dan Erickson
of the IAD, adding that
after all this time, the
U.S. still faces the
burning question: "What
will happen in Cuba over
the long run?"
Both presidential
candidates share the key
objective of supporting
Cuban steps toward
democracy, but they have
sharply different
strategies for achieving
this goal.
Obama, the Democratic
nominee, would adjust
some of the Cuba
policies of the George
W. Bush administration,
said Restrepo, such as
severe restrictions on
family visits and
remittances to Cuba that
have proven quite
unpopular among
Cuban-Americans.
Obama believes that
reversing the Bush
policies would give
those in Cubans more
"space" from the regime,
according to Restrepo.
Far more controversial,
Obama would then
challenge Cuba's
leadership to free all
political prisoners, in
return for opening
official talks with
Washington and
consideration of an end
to U.S. sanctions,
Restrepo said. . "We
cannot continue to do
more of the same and
expect a new result,"
the Obama spokesman
repeated frequently,
referring to
Washington's long-held
belief that isolation is
the best policy toward
Cuba -- reflected by its
46-year-old unilateral
trade embargo.
Speaking for John
McCain, who is running
on the Republican
ticket, Adolfo Franco
presented a Cuba policy
virtually identical to
that of the Bush
administration.
Over the years, Franco
said, "McCain has held a
consistent position on
Cuba," which is that
"Cuba is a pariah state
that should not be
rewarded until it has
shown a demonstrable
commitment to
democracy."
According to Franco,
McCain would increase
"material assistance" to
Cuban dissidents and
"maintain the pressure"
on Cuba's government.
To "reward" Cuba would
be a "colossal mistake,"
he reiterated,
presumably referring to
the possibility of
opening diplomatic
channels.
Kirby Jones, an
entrepreneur with
extensive contacts on
both sides of the
U.S.-Cuba divide,
bluntly told Franco:
"Nothing you say is
going to work."
The Obama plan, Jones
warned, is flawed if
freeing political
prisoners is presented
as a precondition for
talks. Jones pointed out
that the strategy of
setting preconditions
for diplomatic talks has
proven ineffective in
other settings.
Former U.S. envoy to
Cuba Wayne Smith urged
that a new
administration place
priority on improving
relations with Latin
America as a whole, and
suggested that talking
to Cuba would be a good
starting point.
He also urged an end to
the 1966 Cuban
Adjustment Act, which
provides Cubans who land
in Miami with economic
assistance and a path to
citizenship unavailable
to migrants from other
nations.
"Why is this legislation
still on the books?"
Smith asked, since
circumstances have
changed and its
elimination would remove
much of the incentive
for Cuban migration -- a
sore point for both
Washington and Havana.
Other speakers at the
session discussed the
challenge to
Cuban-American
Republican incumbents in
Miami, in particular
Lincoln and Mario
Diaz-Balart, who
represent traditional
hard-line Cuban-American
views on Cuba.
Lincoln Diaz-Balart, in
particular, is widely
believed to have a
strong influence on
President Bush's policy
towards Cuba.
David Wasserman of the
Cook Political Report
predicted that the
contest for Miami's 21st
district, in the hands
of Lincoln Diaz-Balart
for the last 16 years
but now under challenge
from former Hialeah
Mayor Raul Martinez,
will be the "ugliest
contest in the country".
Democrats, he said, are
betting that the
districts represented by
the Diaz-Balart brothers
have diversified enough
that simply running on
an anti-Castro platform
will not be enough.
David Rieff, author of a
recent New York Times
Magazine article
entitled "Will Little
Havana Go Blue?" and
other studies of Cuban
exiles, agreed.
The influx of other
Latin Americans and the
large number of younger
Cubans who do not
harbour the same levels
of hostility toward Cuba
as their elders could
mean that the election
in the two Florida
districts will focus on
the same social and
economic issues as in
the rest of the country,
rather than on Cuba
policy, according to the
two panelists.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,
another representative
of Miami's Cuban
community in Congress,
is also facing
competition but remains
well ahead of her
challenger, Democrat
Annette Tadeo, in
Miami's 18th District,
according to Wasserman
and Rieff.
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