POLITICS-ARGENTINA:
Cristina At A Crossroads
By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES (IPS)
- Following a major
parliamentary defeat,
the Argentine government
is pondering whether to
accept the reversal and
negotiate with farmers’
associations, or to
pursue its export tax
policy that these
organisations have
rejected. Experts say
this would put
government institutional
stability at risk.
In a highly dramatic
vote, the government’s
draft law to increase
the export tax on
oilseeds was thrown out
of the Senate in the
early hours Thursday by
a single vote. The
proposal, which had
already been passed by
the lower house,
contained the provisions
of a decree already in
force, which raises the
tax on a sliding scale.
The decision against the
government was left in
the hands of Argentine
Vice President Julio
Cobos, who as the head
of the Senate holds the
deciding vote in the
case of a tie. This is
what happened on this
occasion as the number
of senators in favour
and against the motion
both numbered 36.
Cobos is a leader of the
dissident sector of the
opposition Radical Civic
Union (UCR), allied with
the centre-left Front
for Victory (FPV), the
majority sector of the
Justicialista (Peronista)
Party (PJ). He was
Argentine President
Cristina Fernández’s
running mate in the
elections they won last
year.
The government gained a
victory when the lower
house voted on the draft
law less than two weeks
ago, and was confident
it would win again in
the Senate, where it has
47 legislators out of
72, nearly two-thirds of
the seats. However, the
importance of
agriculture and
livestock in the
provinces led several
lawmakers to heed the
farmers’ demands rather
than adhere to party
lines.
"The government says it
wants to carry out
social redistribution
[of the windfall profits
for agricultural
commodities], but it is
unaware of the fact that
here, there is a
conflict over the
geographical
distribution of the
profits," political
scientist Marcelo
Escolar, an expert on
federalism at San Martín
National University’s
School of Politics and
Government, told IPS.
The failure of the law
to pass in Congress does
not mean that the
measure is cancelled.
Before sending the draft
proposal to parliament,
Fernández established
the new taxes by decree,
which sparked the
farmers’ protests.
Lawmaker Oscar Massei of
the governing FPV said
Thursday that the
presidential decree
"remains in force."
"The draft law was sent
to parliament for
ratification, but the
decree was in force at
all times," Massei told
the state news agency
Telam. Unless the decree
is annulled, the export
tax increase will
continue to be applied
-- without the
compensations for small
producers that were
envisaged in the draft
law.
When he cast his
deciding vote against
the proposed law --
presented by his running
mate in the presidential
elections -- Cobos told
the tense and expectant
auditorium: "they say I
have to support [the
government], but my
heart is telling me
otherwise."
"The president will
understand me. A law
that does not solve the
conflict is no use. May
history judge me.
Forgive me if I am
mistaken, but my vote is
not in favour, it’s
against," Cobos finally
announced, having kept
the Senate waiting on
his final decision for
some time.
The head of the
governing party bloc of
legislators, Miguel
Pichetto, had warned
Cobos that he could not
vote against the
proposal because if he
did, he would inflict a
"mortal wound" on the
government. But Cobos,
who had already shown
independence by publicly
calling on the
government to let
Congress decide the
matter, was not swayed.
Cobos’ action drew an
angry response from
government supporters,
euphoria from farmers’
leaders who were waiting
for the outcome of the
vote, and a certain
amount of relief in wide
sectors of society that
were hoping for a
solution to the crisis
that is hurting the
economy and threatening
stability.
Agriculture and
livestock company owners
and producers now expect
the president to rescind
her decree increasing
export taxes on soybeans
and sunflower seeds. If
she does not, they plan
to appeal to the justice
system to declare it
unconstitutional.
"I shall not resign,"
said the vice president.
"This issue split even
the governing party. I
am not a Justicialista,
and I can take a
different position," he
argued. Cobos was
expelled from the UCR
for agreeing to be
Fernández’s running
mate.
"It is surprising that
when a vice president
has to use his
[deciding] vote, he
should do so against the
government, but it
reflects good sense,"
political scientist
Liliana de Riz of the
state University of
Buenos Aires told IPS.
"Society was demanding
consensus, and this
government has become
accustomed to impose its
will," she said.
According to de Riz, a
former adviser to the
United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP),
the government "does not
see reality." It does
not understand that the
"campo" (rural sector)
-- even with its unequal
distribution -- is a
category that includes a
vast range of towns and
diverse occupations that
live off its prosperity,
she said.
"If the president can
take this defeat on
board and move forward
with flexibility, she
should cancel the decree
[that raised taxes] and
seek a consensus," the
expert said. If,
however, "she stubbornly
persists in getting her
own way, the
Justicialista Party
itself will take care of
removing her," she
predicted.
Laura Alonso, the head
of the non-governmental
organisation Poder
Ciudadano, was also
pleased with the result.
She told IPS that the
vote, including the vice
president’s, "should not
give rise to a political
crisis, quite the
opposite, because it’s
an opportunity for
strengthening democratic
institutions."
The Senate’s
intervention shows that
"certain issues can
appeal to regional
interests, above and
beyond purely party
loyalties," said Alonso,
and in her view this
consolidates the
stability of the system.
"Congress responded very
well to this crisis,"
she said.
The government has two
choices in dealing with
this new scenario,
according to political
scientist Escolar. It
can open negotiations on
its own terms, or it can
"behave as though
nothing has happened,"
which was its initial
reaction in the first
few hours after the
vote. "This would be
very dangerous, because
it would paralyse the
country again," he said.
During the farmers’
protests, they blocked
roads -- creating food
shortages and price
hikes -- and truck
drivers also went on
strike, among other
economic disruptions.
The country’s rate of
economic growth has
slowed, according to
experts, and tens of
thousands of workers in
different sectors have
been temporarily
suspended from their
jobs.
Nevertheless, advisers
close to the governing
party and even FPV
legislators loyal to the
government take the view
that it is unlikely that
the president, and her
husband and predecessor
Néstor Kirchner
(2003-2007), will choose
to negotiate a
consensus. "They think
that to negotiate is to
show weakness," said
one, off the record.
"If, instead of cooling
the conflict down and
trying to reach a
negotiated settlement,
the government continues
to deny the problem and
accuses Cobos of
treason, we will be in
serious problems," said
one of the government
advisers.
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