LATIN AMERICA:
"Crisis Will Strengthen
Forces Calling for
Negotiations"
Interview with Heinz
Dieterich
MEXICO CITY, (IPS)
- The political analyst
who coined the phrase
"21st century socialism"
said the "war drums"
sounding in South
America’s Andean region
since Colombian troops
made an incursion into
Ecuador to kill a senior
FARC guerrilla commander
will politically benefit
the Venezuelan
government and pressure
the Colombian
administration to tone
down its belligerent
stance.
"There will be a
negotiated solution to
this," Heinz Dieterich,
who teaches at the
Autonomous Metropolitan
University in Mexico
City, said in an
interview with IPS
correspondent Diego
Cevallos.
Dieterich, a
Mexico-based German
sociologist and
economist who writes
extensively on Latin
America and has close
ties to Venezuela’s
leftwing President Hugo
Chávez, discussed the
possible repercussions
of the military
operation in which
Colombia bombed a FARC
(Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia) camp
within Ecuador on
Saturday.
According to the
analyst, the conflict,
in which Ecuador and
Venezuela have moved
troops to their borders
with Colombia, Ecuador
has severed diplomatic
relations with Colombia,
and Venezuela has closed
down its embassy in
Bogotá and expelled
Colombia’s ambassador,
will gradually die down
as a result of pressure
from Latin American and
European countries.
The crisis was triggered
by the bombing raid on
the FARC camp, and
subsequent incursion by
Colombian troops, in
northern Ecuador. The
insurgent leader who was
dubbed the group’s
"foreign minister", Raúl
Reyes, was the target of
the attack, in which
around 20 other rebels
were killed as well.
Dieterich, who wrote
"21st Century Socialism"
about a current of
thought that has been
espoused by Chávez and
by Ecuadorian President
Rafael Correa, said the
rightwing Colombian
government of Álvaro
Uribe and its biggest
ally, the U.S.
administration of George
W. Bush, underestimated
the international
political cost of the
operation against Reyes
in Ecuador.
"They made a mistake,
and that will be
capitalised on by the
forces that are seeking
a peaceful solution to
Colombia’s armed
conflict," he
maintained.
IPS: Do you believe that
the conflict will
continue to escalate,
and that a military
skirmish between
countries could occur,
as President Chávez has
warned?
HEINZ DIETERICH: I think
the whole thing will be
resolved through the
Organisation of American
States (which met
Tuesday in Washington to
discuss the issue), the
Rio Group (a political
forum comprised of 21
Latin American and
Caribbean nations) or an
ad hoc group made up of
Italy, France and
perhaps Mexico. The
concerned parties will
also negotiate.
Too much is at stake to
prevent the Latin
American region, and
Europe as well, from
having a decisive
influence in coming up
with a solution.
IPS: Uribe’s
conservative government
seems to be somewhat on
its own in Latin America
because of its military
action in foreign
territory. Will this
influence the regional
balance of forces or
benefit centre-left or
leftist governments?
HD: I believe Bogotá and
its ally, Washington,
made a serious political
mistake and
underestimated the cost
of this action. They did
not take into
consideration the media
reaction, the position
that Chávez would take,
and the firm stance that
Correa would assume in
Quito.
I would say that this
mistake will benefit the
South American
integration aims of
progressive countries
like Brazil, Argentina,
Uruguay and Venezuela.
IPS: What can be
expected now from the
sectors that are calling
for a negotiated
solution to Colombia’s
armed conflict?
HD: In general terms,
the situation
strengthens the forces
that want a negotiated
solution, in Europe,
Latin America and
Colombia itself. We must
not forget that Reyes
was the middleman
through whom France was
negotiating in its
attempt to secure the
release by the FARC of
former presidential
candidate Ingrid
Betancourt (the highest
profile hostage held by
the guerrillas).
They killed the French
government’s contact,
and this has clearly led
the countries of Latin
America and many
European nations to
believe that this
question can no longer
be left solely in the
hands of Uribe and
Washington, whose war
strategy has become a
potential threat to
regional peace and
stability.
IPS: President Chávez
proposes that the FARC
be declared a
"belligerent force"
(which would formally
allow for an exchange of
prisoners of war). Do
the current
circumstances favour
that proposal?
HD: I don't think that
formula will prosper,
but things are heading
in the direction of
negotiations, although
some way must still be
found to overcome the
current polarisation
without any of the
parties involved losing
too much in the process.
Colombia and Washington
will never accept the
declaration of the FARC
as a belligerent force,
although in my view that
would be the right
approach.
However, Uribe will feel
isolated diplomatically,
and as a result of that
weakened position, he
will have to tone down
his belligerent stance.
IPS: The FARC mistreat
the people they are
holding captive,
according to the
hostages who were
recently freed. That
would not seem to
facilitate recognition
of belligerent status
for the group. What is
your view on this?
HD: The criteria for the
definition of a
‘belligerent force’ are
that they control
territory, are a
political organisation,
and have an organised
military force. All of
those conditions exist.
The ethical dimension is
another question. I
think kidnapping is an
unacceptable measure and
is a serious mistake,
but we can’t talk about
the FARC’s human rights
violations without also
talking about the abuses
committed by the
government and its
military forces.
IPS: Even though the
attack on the FARC was
not in his territory,
Chávez would seem to be
acting as if the
operation had been
carried out against him.
Is he taking advantage
of the circumstances for
political gain?
HD: There is no doubt
that the Venezuelan
government is taking
advantage of the
circumstances to forward
his policy aimed at
regional integration,
and also, of course, to
strengthen himself
within his own country,
where he has been facing
some problems lately.
That’s normal, I think
any other government
would do that too.
IPS: President Uribe
enjoys a high level of
domestic support, and
one of the highest
popularity ratings in
Latin America. Does this
give him legitimacy to
act as he did?
HD: The steadfastness
with which Uribe acts
cannot be explained by
arguing that he only has
the support of the
oligarchy and the U.S.
embassy. He has strong
support within Colombian
society, it would be
absurd to deny that. Any
government without that
support would act
differently. That factor
goes a long way towards
explaining Uribe’s
current policies.
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