CUBA:
Raúl Castro’s Challenges
Analysis by Dalia Acosta
HAVANA (IPS) -
Lacking the charisma of
his brother but
possessing a personality
that is perhaps easier
for the average Cuban to
identify with, Raúl
Castro, slated to
replace Fidel as Cuba’s
new president, will have
to push through major
economic and political
transformations if he
hopes to guarantee the
survival of the
country’s socialist
system.
"Change" seems to be the
byword in this Caribbean
island nation since
acting president Raúl
Castro, in a famous Jul.
26, 2007 speech, called
on Cubans to hold
meetings to discuss the
country’s most pressing
problems.
His main message at the
time was that everything
is subject to change,
and that what worked
yesterday does not
necessarily make sense
today.
The new National
Assembly (parliament)
will face "a complex
stage" and "major
decisions, little by
little," Fidel’s younger
brother said just a
month ago, after casting
his vote for the
country’s single-chamber
parliament and
provincial officials.
Of course, changes
promoted at the highest
levels of government
have their limits, and
for now they are set in
the context of the
construction of a
Cuban-style socialist
model that would
incorporate structural,
economic, legal and even
political reforms.
"Raúl has a sense of the
need for change," a
52-year-old retired
educational system
worker commented to IPS.
"There are many things
that cannot remain as
they are."
Others, less optimistic,
say the acting president
played a role in some of
the most hard-line
policies of the past,
although they also
recognise that he has
pushed for economic
reforms.
While the tendency in
Cuba is to wait calmly
"for whatever lies
ahead," people in the
Cuban exile community in
the United States
question what kind of
changes could be ushered
in by a government led
by Raúl Castro.
Jaime Suchlicki, a
historian at the
University of Miami,
told the press that
real, structural changes
cannot be expected.
General Raúl Castro, who
was defence minister,
first vice president and
second secretary of the
ruling Communist Party,
would appear to be the
only possible candidate
in the elections for the
president of the Council
of State to be held
Sunday in the new
parliament’s first
session.
Close to him is Vice
President Carlos Lage, a
56-year-old doctor and
former leader of the
Young Communist League,
who was heavily involved
in the economic reforms
adopted in the 1990s and
has stood in for Fidel
Castro in international
meetings on several
occasions.
After temporarily
yielding power to his
brother on Jul. 31, 2006
due to emergency
intestinal surgery, the
ailing Fidel announced
Tuesday that he would
not accept reelection as
president of the Council
of State and was also
retiring as
commander-in-chief of
the army.
Without mentioning his
position as first
secretary of the
Communist Party, Fidel
said in a statement that
his "only wish is to
fight as a soldier on
the battlefield of
ideas," and that to do
so he would continue
writing his column in
the Cuban press as "just
another weapon in the
arsenal that you can
count on. Perhaps my
voice will be heard."
After his resignation
was announced,
speculation expanded to
include the possibility
of changes in a system
that up to now has
concentrated the
positions of head of
state, government and
the Communist Party in
the hands of a single
person.
The separation of
powers, which would
require a constitutional
reform, would be a major
transformation for Cuba
and a sign of
comprehension on the
part of the country’s
current leaders of the
need for a more
collective leadership --
something that Raúl has
tended towards since his
brother fell ill.
Analysts say the
question now is to
achieve a model of
government that would
seek balance and
consensus, both within
the current political
class -- which
encompasses several
generations and diverse
political visions
regarding Cuban reality
-- and with respect to
the demands and hopes of
Cubans.
More than 1.3 million
specific proposals were
collected during the
open assemblies and
public meetings held in
Cuba since Raúl Castro
invited people in his
Jul. 26 speech to debate
the country’s problems.
The broad range of
concerns include,
according to different
sources, issues like the
fact that many goods are
sold in convertible
currency, which puts
them out of the reach of
ordinary Cubans, the
real value of wages,
housing problems and the
limitations involved in
the system governing the
"trading", selling or
building of housing
units, the public
transportation crisis
and the quality of
education and health
services.
Other concerns expressed
refer to the limits on
private enterprise and
self-employment, the
fact that Cubans can no
longer stay in the
country’s beach resort
hotels, which are now
only open to foreign
tourists, and the
restrictions on
travelling abroad.
The list also includes
the need for a
restructuring of the
agricultural system --
reforms that the
government is already
pushing forward -- calls
for a revival of some of
the economic opening
measures of the 1990s,
which were rolled back,
and protests against the
return to an excessively
centralised state, after
the decentralisation
adopted as a solution to
the severe economic
crisis of the 1990s.
The majority of the
proposals set forth by
Cubans in the public
debates call for
"certain changes" that
would, however, "help
sustain the current
social policies,"
Mariela Castro, head of
the Cuban National
Centre for Sex
Education, told IPS.
Castro, who is Raúl’s
daughter, added that she
would like to see these
open public debates
become "a permanent
mechanism."
The meetings convoked by
Raúl Castro were
complementary to debates
conducted by means of
e-mail, blogs and
Internet sites over the
past year, through which
many Cubans expressed
their views in favour of
significant changes
within the current
political system.
Baptist minister
Raimundo García,
executive director of
the Christian Centre for
Reflection and Dialogue,
said another important
challenge is creating
"spaces for dialogue"
and for more effective
participation by
different sectors of
civil society in the
search for local
solutions.
In addition, the sixth
congress of the
Communist Party,
postponed since 2002,
will have to be held as
soon as possible, to
approve the main
political and economic
guidelines that the
country will follow in
today’s post-Fidel Cuba.
And all of this during
an election year in the
United States -- a
circumstance that
inevitably marks
politics and even daily
life in this country
that has been caught up
in a bilateral conflict
with Washington for
nearly half a century.
"There are sectors
within the government
that realise that Cuba
must modernise," said
dissident leader Manuel
Cuesta Morúa.
In his conversation with
IPS, he also mentioned
the need for what he
called "common sense
changes" in areas like
"housing, food and
wages, all of which have
to do with social
wellbeing."
With respect to
Tuesday’s announcement,
the spokesman for the
moderate dissident Arco
Progresista coalition
said Fidel Castro "took
the right decision at
the right time."
He referred to the
decision as "courageous"
and said it paved for
the way for "the changes
that the country needs
and is demanding."
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