News Home Page Costa Rica Latin America Sections Special Reports Travel/Tourism Real Estate Business Health The Internet Letters Opinion Columnists Leisure EroTica Entertainment The Take! Learn Spanish Photos Editorial Letters Opinion Columnists Public Forum Who We Are About Us Contact Us Advertise with us Subscribe to our Newsletter Links Page     SPECIAL REPORTS -  Thursday 24 February 2005 < Back   Send this Page To a Friend MEXICO: First Step on Long Road to Granting Emigrants the Right to Vote Diego Cevallos MEXICO CITY,  (IPS) - The lower house of the Mexican parliament has taken the first step towards making it possible for Mexicans living abroad to vote in the 2006 presidential election. But most observers say there is little chance that the measure will actually go into effect by then. Over the last five years, politicians of various stripes have promised to provide this opportunity to Mexican citizens residing outside the country, and particularly in the United States, where there are 10 million inhabitants of Mexican birth. Given these numbers, many believe that the emigrant vote could play a decisive role in the results of the elections. International relations expert Patricio Proaño told IPS that the Mexican government finally seems to be living up to this promise, although he added that the initiative could easily remain trapped in ”the realm of rhetoric and good intentions.” The bill, which will now go to the Senate, comes with 36 million dollars in guaranteed financing. The actual cost of carrying out such an initiative, however, would likely surpass 166 million dollars, and for the moment, there is no known way of coming up with this amount. Moreover, according to the bill, the independent Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) would be responsible for negotiating the necessary voting procedures with foreign governments, although the IFE is not in fact legally authorised to do so. Another obstacle is the fact that the Senate will now be working against the clock. The electoral process will officially kick off in August, and no changes to the rules will be allowed after that point. Given these challenges, it is very likely that the new law allowing Mexicans living abroad to vote will not be passed in time for the July 2006 elections, said Proaño. In order for the rights extended to emigrants to amount to more than ”an expression of good will,” the Senate will have to work hard to make the needed modifications to the bill and find the required financing in as short a time as possible, acknowledged Silvia Hernández, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Nevertheless, the vote in the Chamber of Deputies, where the bill passed by 391-5, with 22 abstentions and 82 lawmakers absent, clearly demonstrated that all of Mexico's political parties support the measure. The bill will almost certainly be met with the same degree of approval in the Senate, since its 128 members reflect roughly the same breakdown of party membership. Of the close to 40 million people of Latin American birth or descent living in the United States, over 25 million are Mexican-Americans, of whom 10 million were born in Mexico. Only three million of the Mexican citizens residing in the United States currently hold voter registration cards issued by the Mexican government. Under the bill now making its way through Congress, the rest will be able to obtain voters' cards in Mexican consulates, where they will also be able to cast their ballots. The bill passed by the Chamber of Deputies authorises the IFE to open voting stations only in places with more than 15,000 Mexican residents. The government of President Vicente Fox congratulated the lower house of Congress for taking the first step towards approving the new ruling, as did a number of immigrants' rights organisations in the United States. The bill was the result of a series of ”consultations” ordered last year by Fox, with the aim of making it possible for Mexicans living in the United States to cast ballots in Mexican elections. But the matter first began to be discussed in 1998, when the IFE appointed a commission to study it. There are no definitive studies to indicate the past or present electoral leanings of Mexicans living in the United States. However, all of Mexico's political parties have representatives in the U.S., and they say they are ready and willing to hit the campaign trail. In addition, the leaders of Mexico's main political parties periodically travel to the United States to meet with Mexicans living there, who have been demanding the right to take part in elections in their homeland for decades. An estimated 60 million Mexicans will be eligible to vote in the 2006 elections. But if the bill is passed on time, that total would expand by three million or more, according to estimates. Hence the predictions by analysts that the emigrant vote could actually decide who Fox's successor will be. The potential presidential contender currently enjoying the strongest support in the polls is Andrés López Obrador, the mayor of Mexico City and a member of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). He is followed by Interior Secretary Santiago Creel of the conservative ruling National Action Party (PAN) and Roberto Madrazo, president of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which governed Mexico uninterruptedly from 1929 to 2000. Although none of Mexico's three main parties has officially designated a presidential candidate, it is these three men who are considered most likely to be vying to replace Fox in December 2006.