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SPECIAL REPORTS
- Monday
15 November 2004
NICARAGUA:
In the Shadow of the
Caudillos
From The Economist print edition
An anti-corruption drive makes
Nicaragua's president popular
abroad, but powerless at home,
and opens the way for a ghost
from the past
Besides the natural disasters
and civil wars typical of
Central America, Nicaragua has
also been cursed with a
spectacularly corrupt succession
of leaders.
From Anastasio Somoza senior, of
whom Franklin Roosevelt
reputedly said that “he may be a
son of bitch, but he's our son
of a bitch”, to his eponymous
son, who pocketed most of the
foreign aid that arrived after
an earthquake flattened the
capital in 1972 - the city
centre is still largely
grassland - to Arnoldo Alemán,
who was sentenced last year to
20 years in jail for corruption
and money-laundering, the
country's caudillos, or
strongmen, have contributed to
making Nicaragua the poorest
country in the isthmus.
Its GDP per head, according to
the IMF, is barely a quarter
that of El Salvador, which
suffered an even bloodier civil
war between leftist
revolutionaries and
American-backed right-wing
insurgents than Nicaragua did,
but has done well since.
So it was to many people's
surprise when the affable,
comparatively old and quite
un-caudillo-like Enrique Bolaños,
Mr Alemán's vice-president, who
was elected to the top job in
2001, began to tackle the
country's problems head-on. With
an almost cavalier disregard for
the norms of Nicaraguan
political life, he launched a
crusade against corruption, and
especially against political
corruption - crowned by the
jailing of his erstwhile boss.
That has won the
American-educated president rave
reviews abroad and substantial
support from international
bodies such as the IMF, as well
as a handy amount of leeway for
complying with their various
targets for political and fiscal
reform. But his support abroad
is in almost inverse proportion
to that at home. With about two
years of his term still to run,
his political base has virtually
collapsed.
Local elections on November 7th
gave sweeping gains to his main
opponents, the National
Sandinist Liberation Front, who
tried to move Nicaragua to a
form of socialism during the
1980s while fighting the ruinous
war against the American-backed
contras. Since voters rejected
the Sandinists in 1990, they
have gradually regained ground
through clever tactics even as
the Liberals, the supposed
bastion against leftism, have
weakened and split. Many fear
that the main legacy of Mr
Bolaños's rule could be the
return of the Sandinist leader,
Daniel Ortega (on the right of
the picture), to the presidency
in the 2006 election.
That, especially for the current
American administration, staffed
with many veterans of the 1980s,
would be, as one of their
diplomats describes it,
“dangerous”. After Cuba's Fidel
Castro, Mr Ortega has long been
Latin America's most potent
symbol of resistance to American
hegemony - so much so that
when he stood in 2001, the
American ambassador went on the
campaign trail with Mr Bolaños.
And besides many questions about
his policies, the Sandinists
themselves have been dogged by
corruption scandals since they
left office.
Mr Bolaños's difficulties began
with his pursuit of Mr Alemán.
Almost all the legislators from
the Constitutional Liberal Party
that both men belong to have
stayed loyal to the outsize
personality of the ex-president,
leaving Mr Bolaños with just six
loyal members in a congress of
92. That has stymied his reform
agenda and reduced the executive
to virtual impotence.
Mr Alemán's supporters in the
party, such as Carlos Wilfredo
Navarro, a member of the
congress, argue that the jailed
caudillo is still the “guide”
and “moral leader” of the party.
They resent the fact that Mr
Bolaños just “used it to gain
power, nothing more” and then
turned on Mr Alemán. They wonder
why Mr Bolaños stayed so quiet
during his four years as
vice-president, if corruption
really was so deep and obvious.
Mr Bolaños's supporters, for
their part, argue that the only
reason that most of the Liberals
have stayed loyal to Mr Alemán
is that they all profited
equally from his corruption. The
president argues that “you
cannot create jobs and wealth
without fighting and tackling
corruption”, and that his
opponents on both left and right
are pursuing “selfish political
interests”.
What makes his situation truly
desperate, however, is that the
Sandinists, though notionally
the opposition, are - and not
for the first time—colluding
with the Liberals. During Mr
Alemán's presidency he and Mr
Ortega made a power-sharing pact
that rewrote the electoral laws
to strengthen their two parties
by making it harder for other,
smaller ones to get into the
congress; gave each of them a
quota of appointments to the
electoral council, the Supreme
Court and the audit agency; and
gave the two caudillos
themselves, as ex-presidents,
life seats in the congress, with
immunity from prosecution. Mr
Alemán lost his only by a
whisker when the Sandinist
deputies, along with nine pro-Bolaños
Liberals, voted to strip him of
it.
Now, in an echo of their earlier
pact, legislators from both the
main parties have brought their
own charges of corruption
against Mr Bolaños, alleging
that he used several million
dollars to fund his presidential
campaign illegally. Though
outside bodies such as the
Organisation of American States
have cast doubt on the way it is
being done the congress may well
attempt to strip Mr Bolaños of
his immunity, leaving him to
face trial. Since the two
parties dominate the judiciary
as well as the legislature,
there is no doubt that they
could at the very least mire Mr
Bolaños's remaining two years in
legal squabbles.
As the recent elections showed,
the Sandinists' years of
collaborationist tactics are
paying off. They made gains even
in Liberal strongholds such as
the town of Granada in the
south. They won Managua with 45%
of the vote, with 13% going to
APRE, an alliance party recently
formed to support Mr Bolaños,
and 36% to the Liberals. But
APRE polled an average of just
9% nationwide. At a fight
between supporters of Mr Bolaños
and of Mr Alemán at a polling
station, a journalist was shot
dead. Unless the Liberals,
divided and tainted by Mr
Alemán's shenanigans, can find a
credible alternative candidate,
nobody stands in the way of Mr
Ortega's ambitions of a return
to power. |
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