Economic Slowdown
Reaches Panama
PANAMA - The international economic crisis,
whose adverse effects were paramount in all
the confines of the planet in 2009, also
left traces in Panama through a noticeable
slowdown in growth rhythm.
Forecasts have confirmed that the country's
Gross Domestic Product will keep its
positive trend, though expansion will remain
at about three percent.
This contrasts with the behavior of previous
outcomes, as from 2003 onward progress moved
at an average 7,5 percent yearly and even in
2007 it reached a solid 12,1 percent.
In the first three months of 2009, however,
the economy advanced a modest 3 percent,
which fell to 2,2 percent in the second
quarter and only reached 1,1 percent from
July to September.
Moreover, official reports showed that trade
activity in the Colon Free Zone reflected a
13,5 decrease, mainly affected by less
action in re-exports to South America and
the Caribbean.
Accumulation in this branch displayed an
eight percent contraction in the first nine
months of the year.
Meanwhile, toll incomes in the Panama Canal
got one thousand 438 million of dollars in
2009 fiscal year (closing on September 30),
for a 120 million increase as compared to
the previous year.
This figure is in stark contrast with the 17
percent fall in operations in respect to the
same period the year before, due to a 4,8
decrease in transportation of net tons and
ship catering service (31,8 percent).
Likewise, net profits of banks operating in
Panama underwent, at the end of the third
quarter, a 21 percent descent as compared
with 2008, thus ending at 675,8 million
dollars.
That behavior accounts for, among other
reasons, caution of institutions that
downsized their investment holdings in face
of the international financial markets'
complex situation.
For instance, analysts mention the important
decline, close to 30 percent, in new car
sales, likely to reach 31 thousand units,
some 12 thousand less than in 2008.
According to the Association of Panama's Car
Dealers (APCD), that reduction is due to a
higher severity of banks at granting funds.
Concerning that, APCD's managers stated that
bodies had adjusted the terms of payment and
asked for a higher down payment, among other
measures.
Furthermore, key adverse factors of social
nature are latent, such as an increase of
children's labor, as 41 thousand minors and
teenagers (from five to 17 years of age)
joined that rank between 2008 and 2009.
A study carried out by the Comptroller's
Office and the ministries of Social
Development and Labor reported that the
number of working children increased from 47
thousand 976 to 89 thousand 767.
As for unemployment, the most recent data
-from last August- indicates that the rate
of full unemployment reached 6,6 percent,
higher than the 5,6 percent registered the
same month last year.
Thus, 101 thousand people were reported
unemployed, adding an element of anxiety in
the current government's hopes to keep on
leading the country along the growth track.
The home survey undertaken by the National
Institute of Statistics and census showed
that the index of unemployment in urban
areas was 7,9 percent, whereas it remained
in 3,9 percent in the countryside.
By gender, it was seen that in spite of less
participation by women in the economic
activity, their unemployment rate (8,9
percent) is higher than that of men (5,1
percent).
Under those conditions, the latest forecasts
in the industrial branch are aimed at a 4,5
percent expansion in 2010, something
positive in a general international arena of
crisis.
Such figure is handled, regarding Panama, by
the UN Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean (CELA) in its prospects
belonging to next year.
Recovery could also be spurred by programs
of public investment advanced by the
government; namely, enlarging the Panama
Canal and building the Subway; they both
demanding millions of resources.
Works like those will bring about a higher
demand of employment, although it is not
high time yet for determining whether
unemployment will decrease, because the
construction sector- regarded among the
largest in the country- underwent
adjustments in its strategists, in the last
few months, as it left in the back burner
the beginning of great housing projects. |
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