Argentina’s Economy “Technically In
Recession” Seems To Have Bottomed Out
BUENOS AIRES - Argentina’s economy shrank
for a second straight quarter from July to
September, but industrial output jumped in
November as auto production surged,
indicating a turn in the economy, data
showed on Friday.
Third-quarter GDP fell 0.3% compared with
the same period a year ago and was unchanged
from the previous quarter, the INDEC
national statistics agency said.
Local media and some economists said the
country had fallen into a recession. The
issue has become highly controversial since
Argentine official data is widely questioned
and most private experts have been
forecasting a contraction in 2009, even when
the government says the economy will grow
slightly.
However industrial production rose 4% in
November from the same month last year.
Automobile production jumped 32.4% and tire
production leaped 12.9% in November, with
the sector boosted by an economic recovery
in Brazil, Argentina's biggest trade partner
and a major buyer of Argentine vehicles.
In the second quarter, the Argentine economy
shrank for the first time in eight years as
the global slowdown sapped demand for the
country's commodity exports and curtailed
domestic spending. In the third quarter, the
goods-producing sector fell 3.6%, while the
services sector rose 1.6% year-on-year.
Argentina's statistics agency Indec has been
widely questioned for more than two years as
private economists accuse the government of
overstating growth and underreporting
inflation for political gain.
Some figures in recent months have been
believed closer to private analysts'
estimates.
Economic growth in the first nine months of
the year totalled 0.2%, but many analysts
say the economy shrank during that period
and will finish the year with negative
growth.
The government forecasts an expansion of
0.5% in 2009 and 2.5% in 2010. In the first
11 months of the year industrial production
is down 0.6% from the same period of 2008.
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