Guevara Moves Up In The Polls, Becomes
Alternate Option To Chinchilla
A poll by Unimer for the daily Spanish
languaga newspaper La Nación places Otto
Guevara of the Movimiento Libertario (ML)
party in second place with 30% support,
behind Laura Chinchilla of the Partido
Liberación Nacional (PLN) party with 43%,
while Ottón Solís of the Partido Acción
Cuidadana (PAC) party trailing in third with
a 16% support.
The big changes are in the rise in the
popularity of Guevara who only last month
had a 13% support, more than doubling his
support, while Chinchilla dropping from a
63% support, with two months to the polls.
Support for Solís remains level, climbing on
point from last month's 15%, while Luis
Fishman of the Partido Unidad Social
Cristiana (PUSC) dropped 1 point from last
month's 7 and others rising to 5% from last
month's 3%.
The presidential elections are scheduled for
Sunday, February 7, 2010, where a clear cut
winner has to achieve more than 40% of the
votes, failing which would mean a run off
vote on Sunday, April 4th.
If the trend continues, Guevara gaining
support while Chinchilla dropping, a run off
vote between Guevara and Chinchilla could be
a reality. And if the Chinchilla support
continues on the decline and Guevara
continues to capture the independent and
undecided votes, he could pull a surprising
win.
In 2006, Oscar Arias had a commanding lead
ahead of the PAC's Solís right up to the
last weeks of the election and then only
winning by less than a 1.000 votes.
Guevara has come out strong against PLN and
PUSC parties. His stance is one to get tough
on crime, an increasing problem today in
Costa Rica, responding to the concerns and
insecurity of many.
His economic policy is based on free market
conditions and proposes adopting the US
dollar as the official currency, dropping
the Costa Rican Colon, among other items.
However, it is still too early to call the
election.
In Costa Rican politics anything can happen
in two months, tides and turn in favour or
against any one or a group of candidates.
One thing is for sure, this election - the
2010 presidential elections - will be
different and much more interesting than
past elections, where voters basically
alternated their choice of government
between the PLN and PUSC party candidates.
Beginning in 1970 and 1974, the PLN's José
Figueres Ferrer and Daniel Oduber Quirós,
respectively, governed; in 1978 the
PUSC's Rodrigo Carazo Odio got the vote; in
1982 and 1986, Luis Alberto Monge and Oscar
Arias, respectively, of the PLN won the
elections; Rafael Angel Calderón got
the nod in 1990; in 1994 it was the PLN's
turn with Jose María Figueres Olsen, in 1998
and 2002the PUSC's Miguel Angel Calderón and
Abel Pacheco, respectively got the nod, in
2006 it was Arias for the PLN.
For 2010, Chinchilla had been named a
shoe-in to replace Arias. But the trend
could be buckled as non-traditional parties,
like the Movimiento Libertario and the PAC
gain public support, offering an alternative
to the past. |
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Otto Guevara Guth (born October 13, 1960) is founder of the Movimiento Libertario in 1994 to challenge the conventional orthodoxy of Costa Rican politics which he saw as lurching towards greater corruption and less respect for the individual rights of his people.
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