Another Poll Declares Arias Winner
With exactly one month to go, another poll tells voters that former president and Nobel Peace prize winner, Óscar Arias Sánchez, is still the top contender for next month’s presidential election in Costa Rica, with 47% support.

The latest poll is by CID-Gallup.

In March 2004, Arias officially announced his intention to run for president again as the candidate for the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) or "Green Party". The Costa Rican Legislative Assembly opted to bring back presidential re-election in 2003. Arias headed the government from 1986 to 1990.

During the holiday break, in accordance with the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (TSE) rules, elections candidates were prohibited from distributing propaganda. Since Monday, this is the third poll released this week.

Ottón Solís of the Partido Acción Cuidadna (PAC) is second with 24%, followed by Otto Guevara of the Movimiento Libertatio (ML) with 14%, Ricardo Toledo of the governing Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC) with 6%, and Antonio Álvarez Desanti of the Union Para Cambio (UPC) with 3%

Before the holiday break, Arias and Solís were close in the polls, indicating a repeat of the 2002 election that forced, for the first time in Costa Rica's history, a run off election.

The PUSC’s Abel Pacheco was elected in a run-off in April 2002 with 58% of the vote. Otton Solís was the third wheel in 2002, when neither of the two front running candidates were able to obtain the required 40% of the vote.

The 2006 election is scheduled for Feb. 5. A run-off vote would take place on Apr. 2 and the new president takes office on May 1.

Last month, Toledo, who was thought to have been the person to replace outgoing president Pacheco has failed miserably, according to some analysts. Toledo, who resigned his post as Minister for the Presidency to run for president, has not been able to earn the trust and confidence of the voters.

If Toledo, by some miracle, where to win in 2006 he would be third consecutive PUSC president, following Pacheco and Rodríguez.

Some believe that Pacheco's poor image is blamed for the poor showing and  "having to pay for the current president’s bad decisions." Pacheco chided the PUSC candidate, declaring, "Toledo is part of a minority that claims the past year was bad."

The arrest and involvement of  former president Miguel Angel Rodríguez involvement in the ICE-ALCATEL scandal, are another contributing factor for those who are trying to explain why a candidate for a "traditional" party is so low in the polls.

Before the 2002 election, Costa Rican politics was headed by the two parties - the PLN and the PUSC - who alternated governments for many years.

It was a big surprise when on February 3, 2002, PLN candidate, Rolando Araya, only came up with 30.99% of the vote. In traditional terms, he would have been the next president following the previous 4 years of PUSC ruling. Pacheco only earned 38.57% of the vote in that round of voting.


Polling Data
What candidate would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Source: CID-Gallup
Methodology: Interviews with 3,942 Costa Rican adults, conducted from Dec. 15 to Dec. 21, 2005. Margin of error is 2 per cent.